Verona vs Lecce – 25 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 34 Sat, Apr 25 · 19:45 Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, Verona

Verona 19th · 18 pts · 33 played LLLLL

0–0Full time

Lecce 17th · 28 pts · 33 played LLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Verona were slight favourites.

Lecce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Verona. Verona had 6.2 days of rest, Lecce 5 and had to travel 813 km.

Away travel813 kmRest days6.2 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2

Verona39%

Draw32%

Lecce29%

Expected goals 1.08 – 0.89

Verona37%

Draw27%

Lecce35%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.31

Verona40%

Draw32%

Lecce28%

Expected goals 1.11 – 0.88

Verona33%

Draw33%

Lecce34%

Expected goals 0.96 – 0.99

Verona40%

Draw30%

Lecce30%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.02

Over 2.5 31% Both score 40% Likeliest score 0–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Verona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 113

Team strength

Verona

Lecce

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

15 AttackIn forecast 36

29 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Verona

Lecce

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.39

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 0.76

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

48% Scored inContext 48%

15% Clean sheetsContext 24%

11.12 ShotsContext 9.64

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.59

33% On target shareContext 24%

6.24 Shots in the boxContext 5.53

55% Box shareContext 54%

6% ConversionContext 7%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.67

12.70 Shots allowedContext 12.52

4.16 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.39

3.88 BlocksContext 3.50

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

60% Save rateContext 67%

41% PossessionIn forecast 42%

331 PassesContext 321

251 Accurate passesContext 243

76% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.72

15.45 FoulsContext 12.39

8.82 Fouls sufferedContext 14.06

2.27 Yellow cardsContext 1.61

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

40% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.20 ShotsContext 9.60

2.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

23% On target shareContext 25%

5.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.90

47% Box shareContext 56%

5% ConversionContext 9%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.30 Shots allowedContext 11.90

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

3.10 BlocksContext 3.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

53% Save rateContext 57%

44% PossessionIn forecast 39%

346 PassesContext 292

272 Accurate passesContext 214

79% Pass accuracyContext 73%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.73

15.10 FoulsContext 12.10

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Verona

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lecce

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel813 km1,450 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Verona	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Apr	5Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	813 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,450 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

5A. Edmundsson 37A. Bella-Kotchap 15V. Nelsson

3M. Frese 24A. Bernede 63R. Gagliardini 11J. Akpa Akpro 7R. Belghali

18K. Bowie 10T. Suslov

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 18G. Jean 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

20Y. Ramadani 29L. Coulibaly

19L. Banda 16O. Gandelman 50S. Pierotti

9N. Štulić

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Verona Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Verona-0.9 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Lecce+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Verona · Home 0.44points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-11
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.56

Lecce · Away 0.69points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-11
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Verona	Lecce
AC Milan	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Torino	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Fiorentina	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
Atalanta	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H	L 0–3 HL 1–4 A
Genoa	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Bologna	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Napoli	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
Sassuolo	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 H
Parma	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Pisa	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 H
Cagliari	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H
Udinese	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A
Cremonese	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Lazio	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Inter	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Como	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Juventus	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	17 of 96 · 0.53 per game	27 of 96 · 0.84 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Verona wins3 draws1 Lecce wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.57 Over 2.514% Both scored29% Clean sheets57% · 29%

8 Nov 2025Lecce0–0Verona
11 May 2025Verona1–1Lecce
29 Oct 2024Lecce1–0Verona
10 Mar 2024Lecce0–1Verona
27 Nov 2023Verona2–2Lecce
7 May 2023Lecce0–1Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Verona	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	0.67
Conceded per game	1.70	1.39
Match goals	2.39	2.06	1.97
Over 1.5	70%	64%
Over 2.5	58%	36%	31%
Over 3.5	24%	12%
Both teams scored	48%	36%	40%
Clean sheets	15%	24%
Failed to score	52%	52%
Games	33	33

	Verona	Lecce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.60
Match goals	2.00	2.50	1.97
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	31%
Over 3.5	0%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	40%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	60%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Verona	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.97	4.28
Corners conceded	4.34	5.50
Match total	8.31	9.78	8.73
Over 8.5	53% 17/32	72% 23/32
Over 9.5	28% 9/32	59% 19/32
Over 10.5	19% 6/32	44% 14/32
Cards
Cards	2.39	1.67
Opponent cards	1.61	1.55
Match total	4.00	3.22	3.88
Over 3.5	52% 17/33	42% 14/33
Over 4.5	39% 13/33	24% 8/33

	Verona	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	3.44
Corners conceded	3.22	6.22
Match total	8.11	9.66	8.73
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	11% 1/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.10
Opponent cards	1.70	1.40
Match total	4.40	2.50	3.88
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 113 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.52league 3.70

Red cards0.28league 0.19

Cards 5+51%league 35%

Fouls25.0league 24.8

Penalties0.20league 0.29

Home wins36%league 40%

Verona5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

W1 Feb 25A · Monza1–03
L27 Apr 24A · Lazio0–14
D11 Feb 24A · Monza0–02
W7 May 23A · Lecce1–05
L16 Oct 22H · AC Milan1–23

Lecce7 with this referee

Record0-2-5 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 1

D23 Aug 25A · Genoa0–03
L3 May 25H · Napoli0–12
L19 Aug 24H · Atalanta0–40
L13 May 24H · Udinese0–22
D6 Jan 24H · Cagliari1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.