Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Verona were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Verona. Verona had 5.2 days of rest, Sassuolo 5.3 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days5.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Verona42%
Draw29%
Sassuolo29%
Verona45%
Draw27%
Sassuolo28%
Verona43%
Draw29%
Sassuolo28%
Verona36%
Draw30%
Sassuolo35%
Verona44%
Draw27%
Sassuolo29%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 39
Team strength
Verona
Sassuolo
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
15
AttackIn forecast
41
29
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaSassuolo
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
40%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.20
ShotsContext
9.20
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
46%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
49%
Box shareContext
64%
3%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.60
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
71%
Save rateContext
71%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
302
PassesContext
379
225
Accurate passesContext
315
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.72
17.40
FoulsContext
12.00
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
8.60
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
31%
On target shareContext
37%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
52%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.20
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.11
BlocksContext
3.90
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
72%
Save rateContext
66%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
297
PassesContext
342
218
Accurate passesContext
271
74%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.74
17.00
FoulsContext
11.40
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km826 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel87 km283 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 826 km | 283 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
3M. Frese
15V. Nelsson
5Unai Núñez
63R. Gagliardini
12D. Bradarić
24A. Bernede
8S. Serdar
7R. Belghali
16G. Orban
17Giovane
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
40A. Vranckx
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
7C. Volpato
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sassuolo+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Sassuolo · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Verona | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Lazio | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Verona wins0 draws3 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.83
Over 2.583%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets17% · 0%
- 3 Mar 2024Verona1–0Sassuolo
- 1 Sep 2023Sassuolo3–1Verona
- 8 Apr 2023Verona2–1Sassuolo
- 24 Oct 2022Sassuolo2–1Verona
- 16 Jan 2022Sassuolo2–4Verona
- 21 Aug 2021Verona2–3Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Verona | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 2.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 7.60 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Verona | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.60 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.30 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.46league 3.60
Red cards0.13league 0.14
Cards 5+56%league 36%
Fouls26.0league 25.8
Penalties0.28league 0.24
Home wins46%league 40%
Verona3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L15 Feb 25A · AC Milan0–14
- W8 Apr 23H · Sassuolo2–13
- W4 Apr 22H · Genoa1–04
Sassuolo4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Apr 23A · Verona1–24
- W6 Mar 23H · Cremonese3–21
- W20 Feb 22A · Inter2–02
- D23 Jan 22A · Torino1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Verona5 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Sassuolo5 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
