VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. VfB Stuttgart had 7 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 6.2 and had to travel 288 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel288 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfB Stuttgart64%
Draw19%
1.FC Köln17%
VfB Stuttgart65%
Draw20%
1.FC Köln15%
VfB Stuttgart64%
Draw19%
1.FC Köln17%
VfB Stuttgart56%
Draw21%
1.FC Köln23%
VfB Stuttgart63%
Draw19%
1.FC Köln18%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
Warm
27°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 44%
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 72
Team strength
VfB Stuttgart
1.FC Köln
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
70
AttackIn forecast
36
58
DefenceIn forecast
36
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB Stuttgart1.FC Köln
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.20
ShotsContext
14.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
40%
On target shareContext
36%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
64%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.80
Shots allowedContext
11.20
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.13
BlocksContext
3.00
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
62%
Save rateContext
50%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
464
PassesContext
401
385
Accurate passesContext
332
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.00
FoulsContext
8.30
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
L
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km382 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 0 pts vs 0.3 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
- L28 AugA · Bayern München1–50.5 xPts
1.FC Köln
W
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel288 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 3 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
- W29 AugH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.2 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 6.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 288 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 382 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
1F. Bredlow(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
10C. Führich
6A. Stiller
21G. Prömel
4J. Vagnoman
11B. El Khannouss
26D. Undav
17D. Pejčinović
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
14G. Mensah
24L. Lochoshvili
22J. Simpson-Pusey
17A. Castro-Montes
23Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
5T. Krauß
8Í. Jóhannesson
37L. Maina
9R. Ache
29J. Thielmann
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
No home games yet this season.
1.FC Köln · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.63 – 0.63
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 14 Feb 2026VfB Stuttgart3–11.FC Köln
- 28 Sep 20251.FC Köln1–2VfB Stuttgart
- 24 Feb 2024VfB Stuttgart1–11.FC Köln
- 30 Sep 20231.FC Köln0–2VfB Stuttgart
- 18 Feb 2023VfB Stuttgart3–01.FC Köln
- 28 Aug 20221.FC Köln0–0VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 6.00 | 5.00 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 4.00 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 13.00 | 10.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 10.42 | 10.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.60 | 3.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.00
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+46%league 22%
Fouls23.2league 24.3
Penalties0.29league 0.11
Home wins39%league 78%
VfB Stuttgart10 with this referee
Record3-5-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 0
- D26 Apr 26H · Werder Bremen1–10
- D23 Feb 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–10
- W15 Dec 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–13
- D21 Apr 23A · FC Augsburg1–13
- L4 Mar 23H · Bayern München1–20
1.FC Köln5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L20 Dec 25H · Union Berlin0–13
- D11 Feb 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–14
- D4 Nov 23H · FC Augsburg1–11
- L12 Nov 22A · Hertha BSC0–21
- W19 Feb 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart1 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
1.FC Köln1 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 21 · conceded 22
3
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
4
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
8
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
