VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 37). VfB Stuttgart usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. VfB Stuttgart had 2.9 days of rest, FC Augsburg 8.9 and had to travel 135 km.
Away travel135 kmRest days2.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
VfB Stuttgart62%
Draw21%
FC Augsburg17%
VfB Stuttgart59%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg18%
VfB Stuttgart62%
Draw21%
FC Augsburg17%
VfB Stuttgart54%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg22%
VfB Stuttgart59%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg18%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 89
Team strength
VfB Stuttgart
FC Augsburg
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
70
AttackIn forecast
72
58
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartFC Augsburg
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
100%
Scored inContext
78%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.11
ShotsContext
11.00
5.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
37%
On target shareContext
30%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
61%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.11
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
2.78
BlocksContext
3.57
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
82%
Save rateContext
56%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
527
PassesContext
399
452
Accurate passesContext
318
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.33
FoulsContext
12.89
12.11
Fouls sufferedContext
10.89
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
3.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.70
ShotsContext
11.80
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
34%
On target shareContext
29%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
64%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.20
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.40
BlocksContext
3.57
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
83%
Save rateContext
54%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
514
PassesContext
419
439
Accurate passesContext
338
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.10
FoulsContext
12.20
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km729 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
FC Augsburg
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel135 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 8.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 135 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 729 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
23D. Zagadou
29Finn Jeltsch
22L. Assignon
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
27B. Bouanani
26D. Undav
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
31K. Schlotterbeck
5C. Matsima
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
8E. Rexhbeçaj
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
30A. Kade
32F. Rieder
20A. Claude-Maurice
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Augsburg+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.25
FC Augsburg · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | L 0–6 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–1 H | L 1–4 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 15 of 21 · 2.14 per game | 7 of 21 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 VfB Stuttgart wins1 draws1 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 11 May 2025VfB Stuttgart4–0FC Augsburg
- 12 Jan 2025FC Augsburg0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 10 May 2024FC Augsburg0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 20 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart3–0FC Augsburg
- 21 Apr 2023FC Augsburg1–1VfB Stuttgart
- 29 Oct 2022VfB Stuttgart2–1FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.11 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.67 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 78% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 78% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.67 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 78% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 78% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 22% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 8.44 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 3.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 3.45 | 5.33 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.44 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 4.11
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+40%league 42%
Fouls22.3league 22.1
Penalties0.29league 0.36
Home wins52%league 44%
VfB Stuttgart10 with this referee
Record2-5-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- D30 Nov 24A · Werder Bremen2–21
- D6 Oct 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–11
- L14 Jan 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–33
- W16 Sep 23A · FSV Mainz 053–12
- D15 Apr 23H · Borussia Dortmund3–35
FC Augsburg8 with this referee
Record2-2-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L14 Sep 25A · FC St. Pauli1–24
- L4 May 25H · Holstein Kiel1–30
- D2 Mar 25H · SC Freiburg0–01
- W3 Dec 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
- L1 Oct 23A · SC Freiburg0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart9 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
FC Augsburg9 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
