Bundesliga Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 27 2025 · 14:30 Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
0–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 2.81 – 2.34
RB Leipzig
  • 8’ S. Bakayoko
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Bakayoko goal decides it for RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig won 1–0 through a Bakayoko goal. RB Leipzig won despite the lower xG; VfL Wolfsburg created the better chances (2.81 vs 2.34). On the chances created, VfL Wolfsburg deserved more: 1.7 expected points against the 0 points they took.

VfL Wolfsburg35%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig ✓39%

Model vs reality

VfL Wolfsburg goals
0
Model 1.41 · xG 2.81
RB Leipzig goals
1
Model 1.48 · xG 2.34
Total goals
1
Model 2.89 · xG 5.15
Score 0–1
8%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 55%
Both scored
No
Model 59%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchS. BakayokoRB Leipzig · 1 goal
8.7
  • RefereeRobin Braun
  • CoachesP. Simonis · —
  • VenueVolkswagen Arena
  • Table before kick-offVfL Wolfsburg 12th · RB Leipzig 3rd

Timeline

  1. S. Bakayoko 0–1Assist Rômulo
    8’
  2. Y. DiomandeYellow card · Unsportsmanlike conduct
    24’
  3. V. OrbánYellow card · Tripping
    45’
  4. Half time · 0–1
  5. ⇄ A. DaghimFor P. Wimmer
    46’
  6. M. ArnoldYellow card · Tripping
    58’
  7. ⇄ E. BanzuziFor F. Ouédraogo
    64’
  8. ⇄ C. EriksenFor M. Svanberg
    70’
  9. ⇄ D. PejčinovićFor J. Wind
    70’
  10. ⇄ C. HarderFor Rômulo
    79’
  11. ⇄ A. NusaFor Y. Diomande
    79’
  12. K. KoulierakisYellow card
    90’
  13. ✕ C. BaumgartnerMissed penalty
    90’
  14. ⇄ L. MajerFor Vinicius Souza
    90+1’
  15. ⇄ A. ZehnterFor K. Fischer
    90+1’
  16. ⇄ K. KamplFor S. Bakayoko
    90+3’
  17. ⇄ T. WernerFor C. Baumgartner
    90+3’
  18. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

VfL Wolfsburg22 shots · 17 in box, 5 outside
RB Leipzig19 shots · 10 in box, 9 outside
VfL WolfsburgRB Leipzig
50% Possession 50%
2.81 Expected goals (xG) 2.34
1.65 Expected points (xPts) 1.17
22 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 6
9 Shots off target 6
9 Blocked shots 7
17 Shots inside the box 10
5 Shots outside the box 9
437 Passes 433
83% Pass accuracy 82%
6 Corners 11
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 4
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
7.00 Team rating 7.04

Line-ups

VfL Wolfsburg 4-2-3-1

17.9 K. Grabara(G)
216.3 J. Mæhle 47.2 K. Koulierakis 157.3 M. Jenz 27.2 K. Fischer ↓90’
57.5 Vinicius Souza ↓90’ 277.0 M. Arnold
396.9 P. Wimmer ↓46’ 326.6 M. Svanberg ↓70’ 96.2 M. Amoura
237.0 J. Wind ↓70’
  • 1K. Grabara (G)7.9
  • 21J. Mæhle6.3
  • 4K. Koulierakis7.2
  • 15M. Jenz7.3
  • 2K. Fischer↓90’7.2
  • 5Vinicius Souza↓90’7.5
  • 27M. Arnold7.0
  • 39P. Wimmer↓46’6.9
  • 32M. Svanberg↓70’6.6
  • 9M. Amoura6.2
  • 23J. Wind↓70’7.0

Substitutes used

  • 11A. Daghim↑46’6.9
  • 10L. Majer↑90’
  • 24C. Eriksen↑70’6.5
  • 25A. Zehnter↑90’
  • 17D. Pejčinović↑70’6.6

Unused: M. Müller, S. Kumbedi, B. Dárdai, Y. Gerhardt

Coach: P. Simonis

RB Leipzig 4-3-3

17.3 P. Gulácsi(G)
227.2 D. Raum 236.9 C. Lukeba 47.2 V. Orbán 177.2 R. Baku
137.0 N. Seiwald 146.0 C. Baumgartner ↓90’ 206.9 F. Ouédraogo ↓64’
497.2 Y. Diomande ↓79’ 405.9 Rômulo A↓79’ 98.7★ S. Bakayoko ↓90’
  • 1P. Gulácsi (G)7.3
  • 22D. Raum7.2
  • 23C. Lukeba6.9
  • 4V. Orbán7.2
  • 17R. Baku7.2
  • 13N. Seiwald7.0
  • 14C. Baumgartner↓90’6.0
  • 20F. Ouédraogo↓64’6.9
  • 49Y. Diomande↓79’7.2
  • 40RômuloA↓79’5.9
  • 9S. Bakayoko ★↓90’8.7

Substitutes used

  • 7A. Nusa↑79’6.9
  • 44K. Kampl↑90’
  • 6E. Banzuzi↑64’6.6
  • 11C. Harder↑79’6.3
  • 36T. Werner↑90’

Unused: M. Vandevoordt, L. Klostermann, E. Bitshiabu, A. Maksimović

Player stats

Top rated
S. BakayokoRB Leipzig8.7
2nd
K. GrabaraVfL Wolfsburg7.9
3rd
Vinicius SouzaVfL Wolfsburg7.5

VfL Wolfsburg

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
K. Grabara G 90 0 0 5 sv 0 97% 29 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.9
J. Mæhle D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 80% 50 1 3 1/2 1/0 6.3
K. Koulierakis D 90 0 0 2 (1) 1 85% 66 1 1 0/0 1/1 7.2
M. Jenz D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 49 2 2 0/0 0/1 7.3
K. Fischer D 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 79% 43 3 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
Vinicius Souza M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 91% 34 4 0 0/1 2/0 7.5
M. Arnold M 90 0 0 0 (0) 3 94% 47 1 0 1/1 1/0 7.0
P. Wimmer M 46 0 0 1 (0) 2 79% 19 0 0 1/1 0/2 6.9
M. Svanberg M 70 0 0 0 (0) 2 70% 20 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.6
M. Amoura F 90 0 0 3 (1) 1 63% 27 3 1 1/3 1/1 6.2
J. Wind F 70 0 0 3 (2) 0 86% 21 0 0 0/1 0/2 7.0
A. Daghim F 44 0 0 2 (0) 0 75% 12 3 0 1/2 0/2 6.9
L. Majer M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
C. Eriksen M 20 0 0 1 (0) 0 57% 7 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
A. Zehnter M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
D. Pejčinović F 20 0 0 0 (0) 0 40% 10 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.6

RB Leipzig

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
P. Gulácsi G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 69% 42 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.3
D. Raum D 90 0 0 1 (0) 4 79% 63 3 1 2/3 1/0 7.2
C. Lukeba D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 65 1 5 0/1 1/0 6.9
V. Orbán D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 83% 46 3 1 0/0 1/1 7.2
R. Baku M 90 0 0 2 (1) 0 86% 59 2 0 1/2 2/0 7.2
N. Seiwald M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 96% 26 3 1 0/0 3/1 7.0
C. Baumgartner M 90 0 0 2 (0) 4 84% 25 2 1 0/1 1/0 6.0
F. Ouédraogo M 64 0 0 0 (0) 0 93% 14 1 0 1/2 0/1 6.9
Y. Diomande F 79 0 0 1 (1) 2 79% 33 0 1 3/5 0/0 7.2
Rômulo F 79 0 1 0 (0) 1 75% 12 1 2 0/0 0/0 5.9
S. Bakayoko F 90 1 0 4 (3) 1 89% 28 1 0 1/3 0/2 8.7
A. Nusa M 11 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 0 0 3/3 0/0 6.9
K. Kampl M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
E. Banzuzi M 26 0 0 2 (1) 0 67% 9 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.6
C. Harder F 11 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 5 0 0 0/1 0/1 6.3
T. Werner F 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.