VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 49). VfL Wolfsburg had 5.8 days of rest, RB Leipzig 6.9 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days5.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
VfL Wolfsburg35%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig39%
VfL Wolfsburg34%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig38%
VfL Wolfsburg35%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig39%
VfL Wolfsburg28%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig46%
VfL Wolfsburg35%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig38%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobin Braun
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.75
- Matches 4
Team strength
VfL Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
50
AttackIn forecast
76
42
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgRB Leipzig
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
75%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.75
ShotsContext
16.50
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
32%
On target shareContext
26%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
11.75
52%
Box shareContext
71%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.50
Shots allowedContext
12.25
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.25
BlocksContext
4.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
392
PassesContext
421
318
Accurate passesContext
348
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.75
FoulsContext
10.25
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.90
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
30%
On target shareContext
34%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
58%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.11
14.10
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.70
BlocksContext
4.60
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
61%
Save rateContext
55%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
385
PassesContext
449
310
Accurate passesContext
373
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.40
FoulsContext
10.10
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km497 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel163 km651 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 497 km | 651 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
21J. Mæhle
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
2K. Fischer
5Vinicius Souza
27M. Arnold
39P. Wimmer
32M. Svanberg
9M. Amoura
23J. Wind
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
13N. Seiwald
14C. Baumgartner
20F. Ouédraogo
49Y. Diomande
40Rômulo
9S. Bakayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- RB Leipzig-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
RB Leipzig · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | VfL Wolfsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 VfL Wolfsburg wins0 draws5 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.88
Over 2.563%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 11 Apr 2025VfL Wolfsburg2–3RB Leipzig
- 30 Nov 2024RB Leipzig1–5VfL Wolfsburg
- 13 Apr 2024RB Leipzig3–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 25 Nov 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–1RB Leipzig
- 18 Feb 2023VfL Wolfsburg0–3RB Leipzig
- 27 Aug 2022RB Leipzig2–0VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 9.75 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 3.75 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.30 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.40 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Braun 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.22
Red cards0.50league 0.32
Cards 5+50%league 49%
Fouls19.8league 22.5
Penalties0.75league 0.54
Home wins50%league 43%
VfL WolfsburgNo previous matches with this referee.
RB LeipzigNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg4 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
RB Leipzig4 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
