Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were clear favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Villarreal. Villarreal had 8 days of rest, Deportivo La Coruna 6.1 and had to travel 787 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel787 kmRest days8 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Villarreal65%
Draw19%
Deportivo La Coruna15%
Villarreal59%
Draw22%
Deportivo La Coruna19%
Villarreal65%
Draw20%
Deportivo La Coruna15%
Villarreal58%
Draw22%
Deportivo La Coruna20%
Villarreal65%
Draw19%
Deportivo La Coruna15%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
Heat stress
27°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 74%
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 57
Team strength
Villarreal
Deportivo La Coruna
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
76
AttackIn forecast
40
73
DefenceIn forecast
57
40
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDeportivo La Coruna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealDeportivo La Coruna
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.67
ShotsContext
8.33
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
43%
On target shareContext
44%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
4.67
71%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
20%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
15.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
9.00
BlocksContext
3.33
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
75%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
561
PassesContext
429
499
Accurate passesContext
364
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.67
FoulsContext
14.33
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
10.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
41%
On target shareContext
43%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
68%
Box shareContext
68%
17%
ConversionContext
16%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.20
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.88
BlocksContext
3.00
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
71%
Save rateContext
80%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
489
PassesContext
425
427
Accurate passesContext
364
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.60
FoulsContext
13.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
DDL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,398 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 40 · 2 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Deportivo La Coruna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 6.1La Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 787 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,398 km | 1,626 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
2Logan Costa
3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
24N. Saliba
19N. Pépé
22Ayoze Pérez
7Gerard Moreno
Deportivo La Coruna
Confirmed XI
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata
20J. Giménez
4L. Noubi
23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez
16L. Amatucci
21Mario Soriano
19Luismi Cruz
7P. Aubameyang
32B. Nsongo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Deportivo La Coruna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Deportivo La Coruna-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
No home games yet this season.
Deportivo La Coruna · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Deportivo La Coruna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Villarreal | Deportivo La Coruna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.67 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Deportivo La Coruna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 12.66 | 9.67 | 10.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Villarreal | Deportivo La Coruna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.56 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.12 | 8.60 | 10.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.49league 4.26
Red cards0.25league 0.24
Cards 5+54%league 47%
Fouls25.0league 25.2
Penalties0.42league 0.32
Home wins44%league 56%
Villarreal3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 3
- W22 Feb 26H · Valencia2–12
- L2 Jan 24A · Valencia1–35
- D22 Oct 23H · Alaves1–14
Deportivo La CorunaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal3 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
