Villarreal vs Levante – 2 May 2026

La Liga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 2 · 13:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 3rd · 65 pts · 33 played WLWDW

5–1Full time

Levante 19th · 33 pts · 33 played WLWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Villarreal had 5.7 days of rest, Levante 4.7 and had to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days5.7 · 4.7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Villarreal54%

Draw26%

Levante21%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.92

Villarreal59%

Draw23%

Levante18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.94

Villarreal52%

Draw26%

Levante21%

Expected goals 1.59 – 0.92

Villarreal46%

Draw28%

Levante26%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.03

Villarreal55%

Draw24%

Levante20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.02

Over 2.5 47% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 134

Team strength

Villarreal

Levante

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

76 AttackIn forecast 55

73 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Villarreal

Levante

1.79 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.12

1.15 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.52

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

85% Scored inContext 64%

24% Clean sheetsContext 24%

11.76 ShotsContext 11.12

4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.53

38% On target shareContext 31%

8.18 Shots in the boxContext 7.06

69% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 10%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.96

12.09 Shots allowedContext 15.39

3.84 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.06

4.10 BlocksContext 4.03

2.73 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.73

70% Save rateContext 71%

44% PossessionIn forecast 43%

393 PassesContext 344

324 Accurate passesContext 271

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.73 FoulsContext 12.70

11.91 Fouls sufferedContext 12.64

2.24 Yellow cardsContext 2.24

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

90% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.90 ShotsContext 13.60

5.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

39% On target shareContext 30%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

73% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 8%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.44

12.30 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.80 BlocksContext 3.30

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

78% Save rateContext 72%

41% PossessionIn forecast 45%

372 PassesContext 334

303 Accurate passesContext 264

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.70 FoulsContext 13.70

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal

Rest5.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,220 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Levante

Rest4.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel57 km590 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.7La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr	4.7La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,220 km	590 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Arnau Tenas(G)

24A. Pedraza Sag 12Renato Veiga 6Pau Navarro 3A. Freeman

20Alberto Moleiro 10Dani Parejo 14Santi Comesaña 19N. Pépé

9G. Mikautadze 7Gerard Moreno

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Levante Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13M. Ryan(G)

6Diego Pampín 3A. Matturro 2M. Moreno 22J. Toljan

16K. Arriaga

9Iván Romero 8Jon Ander Olasagasti 10Pablo Martínez 24Carlos Álvarez

19Carlos Espí

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Levante Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal+1.0 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Levante-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 2.50points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 13-1-2
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.88

Levante · Away 0.81points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-9
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Levante
Celta Vigo	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Oviedo	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	W 4–2 HW 2–0 A
Athletic Club	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	L 2–4 AL 0–2 H
Girona	L 0–1 AW 5–0 H	D 1–1 HW 4–0 A
Real Sociedad	W 3–1 HW 3–2 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Alaves	D 1–1 AW 3–1 H	W 2–0 HL 1–2 A
Elche	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A	W 3–2 HL 0–2 A
Barcelona	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Valencia	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Getafe	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Espanyol	W 4–1 HW 2–0 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Osasuna	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Real Madrid	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	L 0–2 AL 1–4 H
Real Betis	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	D 2–2 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 AL 0–3 H
Sevilla	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Points	62 of 96 · 1.94 per game	33 of 96 · 1.03 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

4 Villarreal wins0 draws1 Levante wins

Goals per game2.60 – 0.80 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 20%

18 Feb 2026Levante0–1Villarreal
2 Apr 2022Levante2–0Villarreal
3 Jan 2022Villarreal5–0Levante
18 Apr 2021Levante1–5Villarreal
2 Jan 2021Villarreal2–1Levante

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.79	1.12
Conceded per game	1.15	1.52
Match goals	2.94	2.64	2.55
Over 1.5	91%	85%
Over 2.5	58%	39%	47%
Over 3.5	33%	24%
Both teams scored	61%	45%	49%
Clean sheets	24%	24%
Failed to score	15%	36%
Games	33	33

	Villarreal	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	2.70	2.10	2.55
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	20%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	30%	49%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	3.93	4.13
Corners conceded	5.00	5.70
Match total	8.93	9.83	9.58
Over 8.5	48% 14/29	53% 16/30
Over 9.5	41% 12/29	40% 12/30
Over 10.5	34% 10/29	33% 10/30
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.36
Opponent cards	2.18	2.55
Match total	4.51	4.91	4.54
Over 3.5	67% 22/33	76% 25/33
Over 4.5	48% 16/33	61% 20/33

	Villarreal	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.90
Corners conceded	5.67	5.20
Match total	9.34	10.10	9.58
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.60
Opponent cards	2.60	3.50
Match total	4.60	6.10	4.54
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 134 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.06league 4.27

Red cards0.26league 0.28

Cards 5+59%league 47%

Fouls24.9league 24.6

Penalties0.31league 0.37

Home wins42%league 49%

Villarreal13 with this referee

Record3-7-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

W8 Nov 25A · Espanyol2–02
D18 Oct 25H · Real Betis2–21
D18 Dec 24H · Rayo Vallecano1–15
D19 May 24H · Real Madrid4–42
W10 Mar 24A · Real Betis3–24

Levante2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L23 Aug 25H · Barcelona2–33
L3 Jan 22A · Villarreal0–52

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.