Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were clear favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 28). Absences weigh more on Oviedo. Villarreal had ? days of rest, Oviedo ? and had to travel 610 km.
Away travel610 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Villarreal72%
Draw18%
Oviedo10%
Villarreal73%
Draw17%
Oviedo10%
Villarreal71%
Draw19%
Oviedo10%
Villarreal66%
Draw21%
Oviedo13%
Villarreal74%
Draw17%
Oviedo9%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 25
Team strength
Villarreal
Oviedo
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
76
AttackIn forecast
23
73
DefenceIn forecast
39
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealOviedo
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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1.64
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
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80%
Scored inContext
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40%
Clean sheetsContext
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12.10
ShotsContext
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4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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35%
On target shareContext
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10.13
Shots in the boxContext
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73%
Box shareContext
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17%
ConversionContext
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1.67
OffsidesContext
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15.20
Shots allowedContext
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5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
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4.89
BlocksContext
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4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
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78%
Save rateContext
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44%
PossessionIn forecast
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402
PassesContext
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337
Accurate passesContext
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84%
Pass accuracyContext
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7.12
Team ratingContext
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10.50
FoulsContext
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12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
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1.90
Yellow cardsContext
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0.20
Red cardsContext
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In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel610 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 610 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
4Rafa Marín
8J. Foyth
15S. Mouriño
21Yeremy Pino
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
29E. Eyong
7Gerard Moreno
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
12Dani Calvo
15Oier Luengo
22Nacho Vidal
5Alberto Reina
6Kwasi Sibo
7I. Chaira
21L. Ilić
10H. Hassan
23S. Rondón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Oviedo-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
No home games yet this season.
Oviedo · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 45% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Villarreal | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 45% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 6.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Villarreal | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | — | |
| Match total | 10.40 | — | 6.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | — | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | — | |
| Match total | 3.20 | — | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | — | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | — | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.96league 1.00
Red cards0.32league 1.00
Cards 5+60%league 0%
Fouls24.9league 24.0
Penalties0.40league 1.00
Home wins52%league 0%
Villarreal1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L8 Oct 23H · Las Palmas1–24
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VillarrealOviedoVillarreal10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Oviedoscored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
