Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Villarreal. Villarreal had 6 days of rest, Real Betis 6 and had to travel 584 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel584 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Villarreal50%
Draw22%
Real Betis28%
Villarreal41%
Draw26%
Real Betis33%
Villarreal49%
Draw23%
Real Betis28%
Villarreal42%
Draw23%
Real Betis35%
Villarreal50%
Draw23%
Real Betis28%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
Warm
25°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 61%
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 39
Team strength
Villarreal
Real Betis
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
76
AttackIn forecast
79
73
DefenceIn forecast
59
23
Form indexContext
91
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealReal Betis
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.18
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
75%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
15.25
ShotsContext
15.75
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
39%
On target shareContext
33%
10.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
67%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.25
13.25
Shots allowedContext
16.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
6.67
BlocksContext
4.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
67%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
582
PassesContext
502
518
Accurate passesContext
436
89%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.10
12.25
FoulsContext
9.50
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.20
ShotsContext
14.80
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
41%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
68%
Box shareContext
51%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.40
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
5.25
BlocksContext
3.10
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
70%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
516
PassesContext
485
451
Accurate passesContext
420
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.70
FoulsContext
10.30
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
DDLLL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,826 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 23 · 2 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected
Real Betis
WWLWW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel584 km3,280 km in 14d
Schedule load16%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +5.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 16 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 584 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,826 km | 3,280 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25P. Gulácsi(G)
20Carlos Romero
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
17T. Buchanan
14Santi Comesaña
18P. Gueye
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
7Gerard Moreno
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
11Fran García
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
2Héctor Bellerín
21Marc Roca
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
22Isco
17Rodrigo Riquelme
9C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Real Betis+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Real Betis · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
4 Villarreal wins2 draws4 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.30
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 17 Jan 2026Real Betis2–0Villarreal
- 18 Oct 2025Villarreal2–2Real Betis
- 13 Apr 2025Real Betis1–2Villarreal
- 15 Dec 2024Villarreal1–2Real Betis
- 10 Mar 2024Real Betis2–3Villarreal
- 13 Aug 2023Villarreal1–2Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.50 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 25% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Villarreal | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.20 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.25 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 12.00 | 10.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Villarreal | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 10.30 | 10.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 4.16
Red cards0.10league 0.24
Cards 5+38%league 46%
Fouls23.9league 24.7
Penalties0.33league 0.34
Home wins46%league 46%
Villarreal2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 Nov 23A · Atletico Madrid1–32
- W17 Sep 23H · Almeria2–12
Real Betis3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L8 Mar 26A · Getafe0–22
- L6 Dec 25H · Barcelona3–55
- W24 Apr 25H · Valladolid5–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal4 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Real Betis4 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
7
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
