Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 70). Real Madrid usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Villarreal had 7 days of rest, Real Madrid 7.3 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days7 · 7.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Villarreal26%
Draw26%
Real Madrid48%
Villarreal27%
Draw26%
Real Madrid47%
Villarreal26%
Draw27%
Real Madrid47%
Villarreal20%
Draw24%
Real Madrid55%
Villarreal27%
Draw25%
Real Madrid47%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 35
Team strength
Villarreal
Real Madrid
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
76
AttackIn forecast
89
73
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealReal Madrid
1.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.15
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
2.21
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
84%
Scored inContext
90%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
12.58
ShotsContext
19.05
4.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.10
38%
On target shareContext
37%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
11.75
68%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
3.46
OffsidesContext
1.94
12.32
Shots allowedContext
9.80
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.59
4.53
BlocksContext
3.17
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.47
70%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
402
PassesContext
576
335
Accurate passesContext
517
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.16
11.79
FoulsContext
10.50
11.42
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
18.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
37%
On target shareContext
35%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
66%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.50
BlocksContext
2.40
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
57%
Save rateContext
76%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
365
PassesContext
555
293
Accurate passesContext
498
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.15
13.50
FoulsContext
9.90
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,167 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
12Renato Veiga
8J. Foyth
26Pau Navarro
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
10Dani Parejo
17T. Buchanan
9G. Mikautadze
7Gerard Moreno
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
17Raúl Asencio
8F. Valverde
5J. Bellingham
6E. Camavinga
15A. Güler
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
30Franco Mastantuono
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Real Madrid+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-1
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 0.70
Real Madrid · Away
2.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 5–1 H |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Getafe | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Valencia | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 2–5 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Girona | W 5–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 41 of 54 · 2.28 per game | 39 of 51 · 2.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Villarreal wins3 draws5 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game1.30 – 2.00
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 4 Oct 2025Real Madrid3–1Villarreal
- 15 Mar 2025Villarreal1–2Real Madrid
- 5 Oct 2024Real Madrid2–0Villarreal
- 19 May 2024Villarreal4–4Real Madrid
- 17 Dec 2023Real Madrid4–1Villarreal
- 8 Apr 2023Real Madrid2–3Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.95 | 2.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 10% | |
| Games | 19 | 20 |
| Villarreal | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.06 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.82 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 9.82 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 6/16 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 6/16 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.15 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 9/19 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Villarreal | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 9.56 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.10 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.77league 4.20
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 47%
Fouls23.9league 24.5
Penalties0.23league 0.36
Home wins49%league 47%
Villarreal4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W30 Nov 25A · Real Sociedad3–27
- W23 Sep 25A · Sevilla2–13
- L5 May 24A · Celta Vigo2–31
- W20 Dec 23H · Celta Vigo3–22
Real Madrid5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W26 Oct 25H · Barcelona2–12
- W21 Apr 24H · Barcelona3–23
- W27 Jan 24A · Las Palmas2–13
- D9 Dec 23A · Real Betis1–11
- W17 Sep 23H · Real Sociedad2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal19 games · scored 37 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
6
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
8
4
46-60
7
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
Real Madrid20 games · scored 43 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
11
3
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
11
3
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 26 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
7
16-30
2
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
