Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Villarreal had 3.2 days of rest, Sevilla 4.1 and had to travel 584 km.
Away travel584 kmRest days3.2 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Villarreal56%
Draw26%
Sevilla18%
Villarreal61%
Draw22%
Sevilla16%
Villarreal55%
Draw26%
Sevilla19%
Villarreal49%
Draw28%
Sevilla24%
Villarreal58%
Draw24%
Sevilla18%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 39
Team strength
Villarreal
Sevilla
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
76
AttackIn forecast
48
73
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealSevilla
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
86%
Scored inContext
77%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.86
ShotsContext
11.26
4.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
38%
On target shareContext
31%
8.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.23
69%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.62
OffsidesContext
3.10
12.17
Shots allowedContext
10.20
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.32
4.06
BlocksContext
3.24
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
71%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
396
PassesContext
401
328
Accurate passesContext
326
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.80
FoulsContext
14.37
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
12.51
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.74
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
38%
On target shareContext
23%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
73%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.90
BlocksContext
2.78
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
79%
Save rateContext
59%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
392
PassesContext
359
324
Accurate passesContext
282
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.70
FoulsContext
13.50
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km477 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Sevilla
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel584 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2La Liga 2025-2026, 10 May | 4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 584 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 477 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25Arnau Tenas(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
3A. Freeman
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
10Dani Parejo
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
7Gerard Moreno
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
36Oso
12G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
3César Azpilicueta
2J. Carmona Navarro
20M. Sow
18L. Agoumé
11R. Vargas
17N. Maupay
9A. Adams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Sevilla-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
2.53points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-1-2
- Scored
- 2.41
- Conceded
- 0.88
Sevilla · Away
0.88points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-10
- Scored
- 1.12
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Levante | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Girona | L 0–1 AW 5–0 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 HW 3–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Elche | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | L 2–5 AW 4–1 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Getafe | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Espanyol | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 66 of 102 · 1.94 per game | 40 of 102 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Villarreal wins3 draws2 Sevilla wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 10%
- 23 Sep 2025Sevilla1–2Villarreal
- 25 May 2025Villarreal4–2Sevilla
- 23 Aug 2024Sevilla1–2Villarreal
- 11 May 2024Villarreal3–2Sevilla
- 3 Dec 2023Sevilla1–1Villarreal
- 23 Apr 2023Sevilla2–1Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.83 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 60% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 23% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Villarreal | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.03 | 4.97 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.93 | 9.41 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 16/31 | 56% 19/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 12/31 | 50% 17/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 10/31 | 35% 12/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 2.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.15 | 4.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 22/35 | 71% 25/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 16/35 | 57% 20/35 | |
| Villarreal | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.40 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.30 | 4.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.51league 4.30
Red cards0.38league 0.28
Cards 5+72%league 48%
Fouls24.4league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins41%league 48%
Villarreal2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W6 Dec 25H · Getafe2–02
- D30 Sep 23A · Getafe0–05
Sevilla5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W22 Feb 26A · Getafe1–01
- L18 May 25H · Real Madrid0–22
- W5 May 24H · Granada CF3–02
- W2 Mar 24H · Real Sociedad3–21
- W19 Dec 23A · Granada CF3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Villarreal35 games · scored 65 · conceded 40
8
3
0-15
10
4
16-30
15
7
31-45
12
8
46-60
10
7
61-75
10
11
76-90
Sevilla35 games · scored 43 · conceded 56
5
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
7
14
31-45
8
11
46-60
6
6
61-75
12
15
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
