Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
15th · 32 pts · 33 played
LWDLL
0–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 70 pts · 33 played
LLWLW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen had 7 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7.8 and had to travel 196 km.
Away travel196 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Werder Bremen24%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund52%
Werder Bremen21%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund55%
Werder Bremen25%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund52%
Werder Bremen18%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund60%
Werder Bremen24%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund51%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 79
Team strength
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
56
AttackIn forecast
69
45
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.06
1.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
64%
Scored inContext
94%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
12.88
ShotsContext
12.64
4.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.42
31%
On target shareContext
35%
8.13
Shots in the boxContext
9.27
60%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.95
13.36
Shots allowedContext
10.21
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
3.77
BlocksContext
2.93
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.61
65%
Save rateContext
72%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
468
PassesContext
485
386
Accurate passesContext
410
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.76
FoulsContext
11.30
9.52
Fouls sufferedContext
10.18
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.20
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
58%
Box shareContext
79%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.20
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.44
BlocksContext
3.57
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
72%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
465
PassesContext
480
383
Accurate passesContext
407
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.70
FoulsContext
11.80
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km850 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel196 km160 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 850 km | 160 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 106 | 105.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
2O. Deman
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
23I. Schmidt
14S. Lynen
20R. Schmid
18Cameron Puertas
6J. Stage
11J. Njinmah
29Salim Musah
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
49Luca Reggiani
24D. Svensson
7J. Bellingham
8F. Nmecha
26J. Ryerson
40Samuele Inacio
14M. Beier
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Borussia Dortmund+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.19points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-7
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.81
Borussia Dortmund · Away
1.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | W 2–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 3–1 HL 2–3 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Points | 32 of 96 · 1.00 per game | 67 of 96 · 2.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Werder Bremen wins2 draws4 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game0.86 – 1.71
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 13 Jan 2026Borussia Dortmund3–0Werder Bremen
- 25 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund2–2Werder Bremen
- 31 Aug 2024Werder Bremen0–0Borussia Dortmund
- 9 Mar 2024Werder Bremen1–2Borussia Dortmund
- 20 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund1–0Werder Bremen
- 11 Feb 2023Werder Bremen0–2Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 2.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.76 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 3.09 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 58% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 6% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.10 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.19 | 5.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 10.69 | 9.39 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 19/26 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 73% 19/26 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 13/26 | 29% 9/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 3.64 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 18/33 | 55% 18/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 12/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 8.89 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.20 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.69
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+30%league 37%
Fouls23.1league 20.2
Penalties0.24league 0.35
Home wins46%league 44%
Werder Bremen11 with this referee
Record1-2-8
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds3
- L14 Feb 26H · Bayern München0–33
- D29 Nov 25H · 1.FC Köln1–12
- D10 May 25H · RB Leipzig0–01
- L3 Nov 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–44
- L21 Sep 24H · Bayern München0–50
Borussia Dortmund5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Mar 26H · FC Augsburg2–00
- L18 Oct 25A · Bayern München1–24
- W22 Feb 25H · Union Berlin6–02
- D2 Feb 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–02
- W13 Mar 22H · Arminia Bielefeld1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen33 games · scored 37 · conceded 58
2
7
0-15
4
9
16-30
5
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
8
14
61-75
14
11
76-90
Borussia Dortmund33 games · scored 68 · conceded 34
9
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
18
5
31-45
7
5
46-60
9
6
61-75
20
12
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
