Werder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Werder Bremen
9th · 12 pts · 9 played
LWDWD
2–1Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
12th · 8 pts · 9 played
LLLWL
Our take
Werder Bremen were slight favourites.
Werder Bremen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 42). Werder Bremen had 6.2 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 5.1 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days6.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Werder Bremen53%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg23%
Werder Bremen51%
Draw25%
VfL Wolfsburg23%
Werder Bremen52%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg23%
Werder Bremen45%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg30%
Werder Bremen52%
Draw25%
VfL Wolfsburg23%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bremen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 109
Team strength
Werder BremenVfL Wolfsburg
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
56
AttackIn forecast
50
45
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Werder BremenVfL Wolfsburg
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
78%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
11.33
ShotsContext
12.33
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
38%
On target shareContext
30%
7.38
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
61%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.22
Shots allowedContext
14.33
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.44
BlocksContext
3.67
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
62%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
453
PassesContext
398
368
Accurate passesContext
320
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.11
FoulsContext
11.11
10.78
Fouls sufferedContext
10.89
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
40%
On target shareContext
31%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
64%
Box shareContext
57%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.60
Shots allowedContext
14.40
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.60
BlocksContext
3.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
66%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
451
PassesContext
395
367
Accurate passesContext
317
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.30
FoulsContext
10.40
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Werder Bremen
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km692 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel151 km272 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Werder Bremen |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 692 km | 272 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.8 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
17M. Grüll
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
9K. Topp
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
15M. Jenz
14J. Seelt
26S. Kumbedi
5Vinicius Souza
27M. Arnold
32M. Svanberg
24C. Eriksen
11A. Daghim
9M. Amoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Werder Bremen+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Werder Bremen · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Werder Bremen | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Werder Bremen wins2 draws2 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.83
Over 2.583%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 1 Mar 2025Werder Bremen1–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 20 Oct 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–4Werder Bremen
- 30 Mar 2024Werder Bremen0–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 5 Nov 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–2Werder Bremen
- 28 Jan 2023Werder Bremen2–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 6 Aug 2022VfL Wolfsburg2–2Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Werder Bremen | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.00 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Werder Bremen | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 3.00 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Werder Bremen | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.80 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 10.89 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 5/5 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.78 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.22 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Werder Bremen | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 7.10 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 11.40 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 6/6 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.77league 4.17
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+54%league 42%
Fouls21.9league 22.5
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins45%league 42%
Werder Bremen3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D15 Dec 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–22
- L18 Aug 23H · Bayern München0–42
- L4 Mar 23A · FC Augsburg1–23
VfL Wolfsburg8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D19 Apr 25A · FSV Mainz 052–22
- L10 Nov 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–43
- L2 Sep 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–32
- W21 Jan 23H · SC Freiburg6–01
- W1 Oct 22H · VfB Stuttgart3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Werder Bremen9 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg9 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
