West Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were slight favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 55). West Ham had 6.2 days of rest, Chelsea 5.3 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
West Ham25%
Draw24%
Chelsea50%
West Ham25%
Draw26%
Chelsea49%
West Ham25%
Draw24%
Chelsea51%
West Ham19%
Draw22%
Chelsea58%
West Ham25%
Draw26%
Chelsea49%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 176
Team strength
West Ham
Chelsea
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
68
AttackIn forecast
77
64
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisChelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
West HamChelsea
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
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Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
—
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.50
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
33%
On target shareContext
41%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
74%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.50
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.56
BlocksContext
3.56
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
83%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
492
PassesContext
519
419
Accurate passesContext
454
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.00
FoulsContext
9.90
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
West Ham
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Chelsea
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| West Ham |
Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 774 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
5N. Aguerd
3M. Kilman
25J. Todibo
12E. Diouf
28T. Souček
8J. Ward-Prowse
29A. Wan-Bissaka
10Lucas Paquetá
11N. Füllkrug
20J. Bowen
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
4T. Adarabioyo
23T. Chalobah
27M. Gusto
8E. Fernández
25M. Caicedo
7Pedro Neto
20João Pedro
41Estêvão
9L. Delap
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences West Ham
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Chelsea
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- West Ham+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Chelsea-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
West Ham · Home
No home games yet this season.
Chelsea · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 West Ham wins1 draws7 Chelsea wins
Goals per game0.90 – 2.10
Over 2.570%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 3 Feb 2025Chelsea2–1West Ham
- 21 Sep 2024West Ham0–3Chelsea
- 5 May 2024Chelsea5–0West Ham
- 20 Aug 2023West Ham3–1Chelsea
- 11 Feb 2023West Ham1–1Chelsea
- 3 Sep 2022Chelsea2–1West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| West Ham | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| West Ham | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| West Ham | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 11.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 5.00 | 3.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| West Ham | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.70 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 176 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.00
Red cards0.14league 0.10
Cards 5+34%league 30%
Fouls22.4league 21.9
Penalties0.30league 0.30
Home wins43%league 50%
West Ham20 with this referee
Record7-3-10
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- D4 May 25H · Tottenham1–12
- L31 Aug 24H · Manchester City1–33
- W11 May 24H · Luton3–11
- W28 Dec 23A · Arsenal2–00
- D3 Dec 23H · Crystal Palace1–12
Chelsea18 with this referee
Record6-4-8
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 1
- D6 Apr 25A · Brentford0–03
- L22 Feb 25A · Aston Villa1–23
- D10 Nov 24H · Arsenal1–14
- L20 Apr 24A · Manchester City0–13
- W12 Feb 24A · Crystal Palace3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
West Ham1 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Chelsea1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
