Willem II
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fortuna Sittard were the stronger side on L90 Strength (19 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Willem II. Willem II had 4 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 7 and had to travel 82 km.
Away travel82 kmRest days4 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Willem II37%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard38%
Willem II35%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard39%
Willem II37%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard38%
Willem II30%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard46%
Willem II38%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard39%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tilburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 50
Team strength
Willem II
Fortuna Sittard
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
10
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
10
AttackIn forecast
19
9
DefenceIn forecast
19
10
Form indexContext
52
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Willem IIFortuna Sittard
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
3.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.66
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.94
83%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.33
ShotsContext
9.00
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
24%
On target shareContext
54%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
71%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
22%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
20.00
Shots allowedContext
20.83
8.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
4.17
BlocksContext
5.17
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
61%
Save rateContext
68%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
336
PassesContext
290
259
Accurate passesContext
216
77%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.48
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.00
FoulsContext
9.00
8.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
0.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
2.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.53
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.82
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.44
ShotsContext
10.00
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
29%
On target shareContext
45%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
70%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.67
Shots allowedContext
18.50
7.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.11
BlocksContext
4.70
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
64%
Save rateContext
62%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
353
PassesContext
316
272
Accurate passesContext
240
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.79
8.89
FoulsContext
9.00
8.78
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Willem II
LDLDL
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km428 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 10 · 2 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Fortuna Sittard
WLWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel82 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 9 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Willem II |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 82 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 428 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.6 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Willem II
Confirmed XI
26M. Delanghe(G)
24N. Tjoe-A-On
23M. Dekker
3F. Stam
5H. ter Avest
52T. Vilhena
6C. Twigt
7J. Slory
19U. van Aalst
50Eser Gürbüz
9D. Haen
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
3R. Guth
12Ivo Pinto
22S. ’t Zand
20É. Michut
23P. Brittijn
10O. Romeny
9A. Descotte
52M. Ihattaren
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Willem II
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Willem II+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fortuna Sittard-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Willem II · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Fortuna Sittard · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Willem II | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | L 1–5 A | L 1–5 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Willem II wins1 draws1 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 100%
- 27 Apr 2025Fortuna Sittard1–0Willem II
- 20 Oct 2024Willem II0–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Willem II | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.17 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.17 | 4.33 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 83% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Willem II | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.17 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.17 | 3.90 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 80% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 20% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Willem II | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 10.00 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 13.00 | 10.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.83 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 1.33 | 3.83 | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Willem II | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.56 | 7.86 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 11.15 | 10.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.84league 2.60
Red cards0.22league 0.05
Cards 5+26%league 12%
Fouls21.9league 20.6
Penalties0.18league 0.21
Home wins42%league 28%
Willem II1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 Aug 24A · Feyenoord1–14
Fortuna Sittard2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W10 May 25H · NAC Breda1–01
- L9 Feb 25H · Ajax0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Willem II6 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
46-60
1
8
61-75
4
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard6 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
9
61-75
4
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 17 · conceded 22
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
