Willem II
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Willem II36.9%fair odds 2.71
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
Fortuna Sittard37.5%fair odds 2.67
Expected goals1.48 – 1.50total 2.98
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Willem II ↓ · Fortuna Sittard → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Willem II goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.41
- 1–28.4%11.85
- 2–18.4%11.96
- 0–17.0%14.24
- 1–06.9%14.39
- 2–26.3%15.99
- 0–25.7%17.55
- 0–05.7%17.57
- 2–05.6%17.89
- 1–34.2%23.76
Winning margin
6.8%
Willem II by 3+
fair 14.70
11.0%
Willem II by 2
fair 9.05
19.0%
Willem II by 1
fair 5.25
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.91
19.2%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 5.20
11.3%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 8.88
7.0%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 14.23
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Willem II goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Fortuna Sittard goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II win | 36.9% | 37.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 24.4% | +1.2 pp |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 37.5% | 38.2% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 62.4% | -5.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.5% | 64.5% | -4.0 pp |
| Expected goals Willem II | 1.48 | 1.60 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 1.50 | 1.62 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Willem II win36.9%2.71
- Draw25.6%3.91
- Fortuna Sittard win37.5%2.67
- Double chance Willem II or draw62.5%1.60
- Double chance Willem II or Fortuna Sittard74.4%1.34
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw63.1%1.58
- Draw no bet Willem II49.6%2.02
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard50.4%1.98
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.3%1.24
- Over 2.557.2%1.75
- Over 3.534.8%2.88
- Over 4.518.1%5.53
- Under 1.519.7%5.09
- Under 2.542.8%2.33
- Under 3.565.2%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes60.5%1.65
- No39.5%2.53
- Yes and over 2.548.7%2.05
- Willem II win and yes20.2%4.96
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes20.5%4.88
Team goals
- Willem II over 0.577.3%1.29
- Willem II over 1.543.6%2.29
- Willem II over 2.518.6%5.36
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.577.6%1.29
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.544.1%2.27
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.519.0%5.26
- Willem II clean sheet22.4%4.46
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet22.7%4.40
- Willem II win to nil16.7%5.98
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil17.0%5.87
Handicap
- Willem II −1.517.9%5.60
- Willem II −2.56.8%14.70
- Fortuna Sittard +1.582.1%1.22
- Fortuna Sittard +2.593.2%1.07
- Fortuna Sittard −1.518.3%5.47
- Willem II +1.581.7%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored58
Favourite won53.4%
Avg chance given to result41.8%
1X2 Brier0.604
Over 2.5 called right79.3%
BTTS called right70.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.8% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 16 | 45.9% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 55.4% | 65.0% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.3% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 84.1% | 40.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 32 of 58 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6446 | 0.6570 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.8% | 40.1% |
| Favourite won | 46.9% | 46.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 32 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 58 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.