Wolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 53). Wolves had 7 days of rest, Everton 6 and had to travel 108 km.
Away travel108 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Wolves35%
Draw27%
Everton38%
Wolves35%
Draw27%
Everton38%
Wolves35%
Draw27%
Everton38%
Wolves28%
Draw26%
Everton45%
Wolves35%
Draw27%
Everton38%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolverhampton, West Midlands)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 178
Team strength
Wolves
Everton
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
41
AttackIn forecast
61
46
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
WolvesEverton
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.28
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
0%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
7.50
ShotsContext
9.00
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
27%
On target shareContext
22%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
58%
Box shareContext
63%
0%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
—
14.50
Shots allowedContext
17.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.50
BlocksContext
7.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
86%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
351
PassesContext
387
276
Accurate passesContext
298
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.57
Team ratingContext
7.01
14.50
FoulsContext
7.50
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.50
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
31%
On target shareContext
39%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
62%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
10.70
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.56
BlocksContext
3.90
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
70%
Save rateContext
82%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
427
PassesContext
366
356
Accurate passesContext
297
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.60
FoulsContext
9.70
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Wolves
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km416 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel108 km207 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Wolves |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 108 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 416 km | 207 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Wolves
Confirmed XI
1José Sá(G)
24Toti Gomes
12E. Agbadou
4S. Bueno
3Hugo Bueno
7André
8João Gomes
38J. Tchatchoua
10J. Arias
11H. Hwang
5M. Munetsi
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
27I. Gueye
37J. Garner
18J. Grealish
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
9Beto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Wolves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Wolves+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Everton+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Wolves · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Everton · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Wolves wins2 draws3 Everton wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.10
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 8 Mar 2025Wolves1–1Everton
- 4 Dec 2024Everton4–0Wolves
- 30 Dec 2023Wolves3–0Everton
- 26 Aug 2023Everton0–1Wolves
- 20 May 2023Wolves1–1Everton
- 26 Dec 2022Everton1–2Wolves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Wolves | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Wolves | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Wolves | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 6.50 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.50 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Wolves | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 8.90 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 178 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.43
Red cards0.14league 0.14
Cards 5+34%league 38%
Fouls22.5league 22.0
Penalties0.29league 0.24
Home wins43%league 52%
Wolves12 with this referee
Record3-2-7
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- L10 May 25H · Brighton0–21
- L25 Jan 25H · Arsenal0–12
- D26 Oct 24A · Brighton2–23
- L16 Sep 23H · Liverpool1–31
- D24 Feb 23A · Fulham1–10
Everton22 with this referee
Record7-7-8
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against4 · 0
Reds6
- W18 May 25H · Southampton2–01
- D12 Feb 25H · Liverpool2–24
- W19 Oct 24A · Ipswich2–01
- L19 May 24A · Arsenal1–23
- W6 Apr 24H · Burnley1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Wolves2 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Everton2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
