Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Zulte Waregem
12th · 29 pts · 25 played
WLLWL
First leg3–2
2–4Full time
Anderlecht
5th · 37 pts · 25 played
LDLLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Zulte Waregem. Zulte Waregem had 7 days of rest, Anderlecht 7 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Zulte Waregem36%
Draw27%
Anderlecht37%
Zulte Waregem36%
Draw27%
Anderlecht37%
Zulte Waregem36%
Draw27%
Anderlecht37%
Zulte Waregem29%
Draw27%
Anderlecht44%
Zulte Waregem37%
Draw27%
Anderlecht36%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.07
- Matches 15
Team strength
Zulte WaregemAnderlecht
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
27
AttackIn forecast
37
31
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemAnderlecht
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
76%
Scored inContext
68%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.36
ShotsContext
14.76
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
36%
On target shareContext
31%
7.65
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
66%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.05
12.96
Shots allowedContext
11.48
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
3.30
BlocksContext
2.88
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.52
67%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
390
PassesContext
434
313
Accurate passesContext
354
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.52
FoulsContext
13.72
11.32
Fouls sufferedContext
11.24
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.48
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
14.10
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
33%
On target shareContext
27%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
64%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.60
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.44
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
415
PassesContext
424
329
Accurate passesContext
342
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.40
FoulsContext
13.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel65 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
5Jakob Kiilerich
45Benoit De Jaegere
17E. Soglo
8T. Claes
40D. Asare
19Benoit Nyssen
22J. Opoku
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
18A. Ementa
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
15M. Ilić
3L. Hey
7I. Camara
74N. De Cat
13N. Saliba
91A. Bertaccini
10Y. Verschaeren
83T. Degreef
11T. Hazard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.17
Anderlecht · Away
1.00points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–4 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Standard Liege | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Gent | W 4–1 H | L 2–4 AW 1–0 H |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 26 of 72 · 1.08 per game | 37 of 72 · 1.54 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Zulte Waregem wins0 draws0 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Aug 2025Anderlecht2–3Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.40 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 36% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 32% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Zulte Waregem | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.41 | 6.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.73 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 10.68 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 84% 21/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 11/22 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 10/22 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.72 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 5.20 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 13/25 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 11/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 11.40 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.60 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.13league 3.88
Red cards0.07league 0.19
Cards 5+27%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 22.8
Penalties0.07league 0.30
Home wins40%league 40%
Zulte Waregem4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Jan 26A · Club Brugge KV3–43
- L27 Dec 25A · Antwerp1–20
- W27 Sep 25H · Antwerp2–00
- L2 Aug 25A · KVC Westerlo1–31
AnderlechtNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem25 games · scored 34 · conceded 38
3
7
0-15
8
3
16-30
7
7
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
10
9
76-90
Anderlecht25 games · scored 30 · conceded 30
6
4
0-15
4
6
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
5
10
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
