Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 27). Zulte Waregem had 15 days of rest, Gent 15.9 and had to travel 27 km.
Away travel27 kmRest days15 · 15.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw27%
Gent40%
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw27%
Gent40%
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw27%
Gent40%
Zulte Waregem26%
Draw26%
Gent48%
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw27%
Gent40%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 38
Team strength
Zulte Waregem
Gent
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
27
AttackIn forecast
46
31
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemGent
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.70
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
37%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
62%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.78
BlocksContext
4.71
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
68%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
388
PassesContext
477
320
Accurate passesContext
397
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.00
FoulsContext
9.90
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.70
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
37%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
62%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.78
BlocksContext
4.71
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
68%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
388
PassesContext
477
320
Accurate passesContext
397
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.00
FoulsContext
9.90
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest15.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel27 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 15.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 27 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
3Anton Tanghe
19Benoit Nyssen
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
22J. Opoku
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
11S. Gavriel
18A. Ementa
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
29J. Duverne
19F. Surdez
17M. Delorge-Knieper
22Leonardo Lopes
20Tiago Araújo
15A. Ito
6O. Gandelman
45B. Goore
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.80
Gent · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | W 3–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 11 of 21 · 1.57 per game | 11 of 21 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Zulte Waregem | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 9.70 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 9.70 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.88
Red cards0.13league 0.22
Cards 5+39%league 43%
Fouls23.3league 23.1
Penalties0.34league 0.30
Home wins45%league 41%
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
Gent2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 Mar 24A · Union St. Gilloise1–11
- D20 Aug 23H · St. Truiden2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
