Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Gent. Zulte Waregem had 21 days of rest, Gent 22 and had to travel 27 km.
Away travel27 kmRest days21 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0
Zulte Waregem35%
Draw26%
Gent39%
Zulte Waregem37%
Draw26%
Gent37%
Zulte Waregem35%
Draw26%
Gent39%
Zulte Waregem29%
Draw25%
Gent46%
Zulte Waregem36%
Draw25%
Gent39%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 50
Team strength
Zulte Waregem
Gent
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
27
AttackIn forecast
46
31
DefenceIn forecast
61
35
Form indexContext
86
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemGent
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.57
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.55
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
57%
Scored inContext
100%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.57
ShotsContext
12.43
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
35%
On target shareContext
39%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
66%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.29
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
75%
Save rateContext
82%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
365
PassesContext
447
292
Accurate passesContext
377
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.71
FoulsContext
10.29
13.29
Fouls sufferedContext
9.86
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.10
ShotsContext
12.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
31%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
64%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
3.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.22
BlocksContext
3.40
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
73%
Save rateContext
78%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
382
PassesContext
435
306
Accurate passesContext
366
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.20
FoulsContext
9.50
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
WDWLL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 7 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Gent
WWWDW
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel27 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 86 · 13 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +5.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 22Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 18 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 27 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
23S. Diakité
11M. Aké
6E. Lofolomo
8T. Claes
20T. Hedl
18A. Ementa
10M. Mbaye
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
16C. Burgess
3M. Paskotši
20Tiago Araújo
17M. Delorge-Knieper
22Leonardo Lopes
45B. Goore
11M. Sonko
7M. Balikwisha
75Ibrahima Cisse
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Gent · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Zulte Waregem wins0 draws1 Gent wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 13 Mar 2026Gent2–0Zulte Waregem
- 19 Oct 2025Zulte Waregem4–1Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.43 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Zulte Waregem | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.70 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 9.16 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 3.14 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.67 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.80 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.12
Red cards0.16league 0.14
Cards 5+44%league 27%
Fouls22.0league 22.0
Penalties0.24league 0.26
Home wins42%league 48%
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Mar 26H · Standard Liege0–10
Gent10 with this referee
Record2-4-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L1 Mar 26A · Genk0–30
- L14 Dec 25H · Antwerp0–21
- L23 Sep 25A · Anderlecht0–13
- D16 Aug 25A · KV Mechelen1–11
- L4 Feb 24A · Anderlecht0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Gent7 games · scored 13 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
