Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Zulte Waregem had 12.9 days of rest, OH Leuven 13 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days12.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Zulte Waregem43%
Draw28%
OH Leuven29%
Zulte Waregem44%
Draw27%
OH Leuven29%
Zulte Waregem43%
Draw28%
OH Leuven29%
Zulte Waregem36%
Draw28%
OH Leuven36%
Zulte Waregem44%
Draw27%
OH Leuven29%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 27
Team strength
Zulte Waregem
OH Leuven
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
27
AttackIn forecast
17
31
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemOH Leuven
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
67%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.83
ShotsContext
9.67
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
29%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
63%
Box shareContext
77%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.33
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
4.17
BlocksContext
3.40
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
52%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
374
PassesContext
307
304
Accurate passesContext
229
81%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.50
FoulsContext
14.50
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.17
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.83
ShotsContext
9.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
36%
On target shareContext
29%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
63%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.17
BlocksContext
3.67
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
52%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
374
PassesContext
347
304
Accurate passesContext
263
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.50
FoulsContext
13.00
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km291 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
OH Leuven
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel89 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 291 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
3Anton Tanghe
12W. Paugain
6E. Lofolomo
8T. Claes
22J. Opoku
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
11S. Gavriel
18A. Ementa
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto
8S. Schrijvers
24Ł. Łakomy
27Óscar Gil
10Y. Maziz
9A. Traoré
22J. Mijatović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
OH Leuven · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Zulte Waregem | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 10.00 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 3.84 | 5.33 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Zulte Waregem | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 10.50 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.84 | 4.80 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.74
Red cards0.26league 0.24
Cards 5+52%league 39%
Fouls23.0league 23.0
Penalties0.11league 0.37
Home wins44%league 48%
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
OH Leuven5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D27 Jul 25H · Charleroi2–22
- L26 Nov 23H · Club Brugge KV0–14
- L28 Oct 23A · Anderlecht1–51
- W23 Sep 23A · KV Mechelen2–13
- D29 Jul 23A · Charleroi1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem6 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
OH Leuven6 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Zulte Waregem6 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
