Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Aug 23 · 19:45 Elindus Arena, Waregem
Zulte Waregem 11th · 4 pts · 4 played
0–2Full time
St. Truiden 2nd · 10 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. St. Truiden usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Zulte Waregem had 7.2 days of rest, St. Truiden 6.2 and had to travel.

Rest days7.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Zulte Waregem40%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.25
Zulte Waregem41%
Draw27%
St. Truiden32%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24
Zulte Waregem40%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.25
Zulte Waregem33%
Draw27%
St. Truiden40%
Expected goals 1.25 – 1.40
Zulte Waregem41%
Draw27%
St. Truiden32%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24
Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)

No weather data yet

RefereeKevin Van Damme
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 0.50
  • Matches 14

Team strength

Zulte WaregemSt. Truiden
25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 35
27 AttackIn forecast 37
31 DefenceIn forecast 32
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Zulte Waregem

Attack—
Defense risk—

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Zulte WaregemSt. Truiden
1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.64
1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.36
75% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 25%
11.75 ShotsContext 13.75
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
34% On target shareContext 35%
8.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
63% Box shareContext 76%
11% ConversionContext 15%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.33
14.75 Shots allowedContext 8.25
4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75
4.25 BlocksContext 3.50
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
58% Save rateContext 73%
43% PossessionIn forecast 56%
382 PassesContext 455
311 Accurate passesContext 371
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.82 Team ratingContext 7.04
9.50 FoulsContext 14.75
8.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.75
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.64
1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
75% Scored inContext 80%
0% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.75 ShotsContext 13.10
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
34% On target shareContext 29%
8.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.30
63% Box shareContext 61%
11% ConversionContext 10%
— OffsidesContext 2.43
14.75 Shots allowedContext 11.60
4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
4.25 BlocksContext 3.90
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
58% Save rateContext 72%
43% PossessionIn forecast 55%
382 PassesContext 513
311 Accurate passesContext 430
81% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.82 Team ratingContext 7.00
9.50 FoulsContext 12.20
8.75 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 4 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Zulte Waregem
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km130 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
St. Truiden
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Zulte Waregem St. Truiden
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 16 Aug6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways130 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 31 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one7.96

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Zulte Waregem Confirmed XI
3-5-2
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen 3Anton Tanghe 4L. Lemoine
55Y. Cappelle 8T. Claes 21Tochukwu Nnadi 24Jeppe Erenbjerg 12W. Paugain
22J. Opoku 20T. Hedl
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
St. Truiden Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 26V. Musliu 20R. Van Helden 19L. Patris
8A. Sissako 6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui 13R. Ito 60R. Vanwesemael
9A. Ferrari
+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Zulte Waregem Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Zulte Waregem · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
0-1-1
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.00
St. Truiden · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Zulte WaregemSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 1.252.00
Conceded per game 1.750.75
Match goals 3.002.75 2.65
Over 1.5 75%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 49%
Over 3.5 50%25%
Both teams scored 75%75% 54%
Clean sheets 0%25%
Failed to score 25%0%
Games44
Zulte WaregemSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 1.252.00
Conceded per game 1.750.75
Match goals 3.002.75 2.65
Over 1.5 75%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 49%
Over 3.5 50%25%
Both teams scored 75%75% 54%
Clean sheets 0%25%
Failed to score 25%0%
Games44

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Zulte WaregemSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.504.75
Corners conceded6.003.00
Match total11.507.759.27
Over 8.575% 3/425% 1/4
Over 9.575% 3/425% 1/4
Over 10.575% 3/40% 0/4
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards1.502.25
Match total3.503.753.76
Over 3.525% 1/450% 2/4
Over 4.525% 1/425% 1/4
Zulte WaregemSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.504.40
Corners conceded6.004.20
Match total11.508.609.27
Over 8.575% 3/440% 4/10
Over 9.575% 3/440% 4/10
Over 10.575% 3/420% 2/10
Cards
Cards2.000.90
Opponent cards1.501.80
Match total3.502.703.76
Over 3.525% 1/430% 3/10
Over 4.525% 1/410% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Kevin Van Damme 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.79league 3.58
Red cards0.21league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 30%
Fouls23.6league 23.0
Penalties0.50league 0.36
Home wins29%league 45%
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • D26 Jul 25H · KV Mechelen1–13
St. Truiden5 with this referee
Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 2
  • D3 Aug 25A · Charleroi1–11
  • W17 Mar 24H · Club Brugge KV2–10
  • L3 Mar 24A · Antwerp0–30
  • L4 Feb 24A · Cercle Brugge1–42
  • L8 Oct 23H · Union St. Gilloise0–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Zulte Waregem4 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
St. Truiden4 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
0-15
3 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Zulte Waregem4 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
3 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
4 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege Cercle Brugge 03 Zulte Waregem St. Truiden 02 Antwerp KV Mechelen 21 RAAL La Louvière Union St. Gilloise 00 Dender OH Leuven 01 Gent Club Brugge KV 11