Zulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Zulte Waregem
6th · 18 pts · 12 played
WWDWD
1–4Full time
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 29 pts · 12 played
WWLWW
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 30). Zulte Waregem had 6 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 5.9 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Zulte Waregem28%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise46%
Zulte Waregem28%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise46%
Zulte Waregem28%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise46%
Zulte Waregem22%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise53%
Zulte Waregem28%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise46%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Waregem)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 31
Team strength
Zulte WaregemUnion St. Gilloise
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
27
AttackIn forecast
62
31
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Zulte WaregemUnion St. Gilloise
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.64
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
75%
Scored inContext
83%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
58%
12.08
ShotsContext
15.00
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
39%
On target shareContext
40%
8.27
Shots in the boxContext
11.36
65%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
3.18
13.83
Shots allowedContext
9.08
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.18
3.55
BlocksContext
2.42
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.55
69%
Save rateContext
80%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
382
PassesContext
419
311
Accurate passesContext
341
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.92
FoulsContext
12.25
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
14.60
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
43%
On target shareContext
34%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
68%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.11
14.60
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.67
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
75%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
360
PassesContext
362
289
Accurate passesContext
287
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.30
FoulsContext
12.20
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Zulte Waregem
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel65 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Zulte Waregem |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 77 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
3Anton Tanghe
19Benoit Nyssen
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
22J. Opoku
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
11S. Gavriel
18A. Ementa
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
6K. Van de Perre
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
13K. Rodríguez
20M. Giger
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Zulte Waregem · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.83
Union St. Gilloise · Away
1.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Zulte Waregem | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | W 4–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | W 5–0 H |
| Genk | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Anderlecht | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 16 of 30 · 1.60 per game | 23 of 30 · 2.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Zulte Waregem | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 42% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 58% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Zulte Waregem | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.30 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Zulte Waregem | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.45 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.09 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 11.54 | 9.67 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 7/11 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.25 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 6/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Zulte Waregem | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 9.60 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.85
Red cards0.35league 0.21
Cards 5+35%league 41%
Fouls24.9league 23.3
Penalties0.23league 0.27
Home wins42%league 42%
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
Union St. Gilloise2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D26 Nov 23A · Gent1–13
- W20 Oct 23H · AS Eupen4–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Zulte Waregem12 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Union St. Gilloise12 games · scored 24 · conceded 6
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
7
61-75
6
3
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
