Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Jan 30 · 16:00 Elindus Arena, Waregem
Zulte Waregem 8th · 11 pts · 8 played
First leg0–0 VS— Compare
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel65 kmRest days7 · 1.8Matches / 14d2 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Zulte Waregem—%
Draw—%
Union St. Gilloise—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Waregem)

Forecast from 15 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Zulte WaregemUnion St. Gilloise
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
27 AttackIn forecast 62
31 DefenceIn forecast 74
17 Form indexContext 73
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Zulte Waregem

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Zulte WaregemUnion St. Gilloise
1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +1.43
50% Scored inContext 88%
38% Clean sheetsContext 63%
12.63 ShotsContext 16.88
4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.13
34% On target shareContext 42%
8.13 Shots in the boxContext 13.50
65% Box shareContext 78%
10% ConversionContext 16%
2.80 OffsidesContext 2.75
12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.13
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75
3.13 BlocksContext 4.13
3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
74% Save rateContext 81%
43% PossessionIn forecast 53%
376 PassesContext 458
304 Accurate passesContext 377
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.85 Team ratingContext 7.14
11.50 FoulsContext 11.38
12.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75
0.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.40
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.90
60% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 60%
13.10 ShotsContext 17.30
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
35% On target shareContext 41%
8.20 Shots in the boxContext 13.20
64% Box shareContext 75%
12% ConversionContext 13%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.78
11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.90
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
3.11 BlocksContext 3.90
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
72% Save rateContext 75%
45% PossessionIn forecast 51%
385 PassesContext 461
308 Accurate passesContext 379
80% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.84 Team ratingContext 7.12
11.00 FoulsContext 11.90
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Zulte Waregem
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km291 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Gent0–21.3 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Anderlecht0–31.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Charleroi0–11.6 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Kortrijk2–01.8 xPts
  • D30 AugA · KVC Westerlo2–21.7 xPts
Union St. Gilloise
Rest1.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel65 km4,359 km in 14d
Schedule load60%Critical
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Zulte Waregem Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Critical · 60
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoYes
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 23 Jan1.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 28 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km65 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways291 km4,359 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 22 / 4 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Zulte Waregem Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Gent (H) 0–2, 10 Oct
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle 5Jakob Kiilerich 4L. Lemoine 23S. Diakité
11M. Aké 6E. Lofolomo 8T. Claes
20T. Hedl 18A. Ementa 10M. Mbaye
Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Zulte Waregem Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union St. Gilloise Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Zulte Waregem · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.00
Union St. Gilloise · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentZulte WaregemUnion St. Gilloise
Anderlecht L 0–3 A W 3–0 H
Charleroi L 0–1 H W 3–2 A
KVC Westerlo D 2–2 A W 5–1 A
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Zulte Waregem wins1 draws2 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.00 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 67%
  • 15 Aug 2026Union St. Gilloise0–0Zulte Waregem
  • 20 Dec 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0Zulte Waregem
  • 1 Nov 2025Zulte Waregem1–4Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Zulte WaregemUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.252.75
Conceded per game 1.130.50
Match goals 2.383.25
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 25%38%
Both teams scored 25%38%
Clean sheets 38%63%
Failed to score 50%13%
Games88
Zulte WaregemUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.102.30
Conceded per game 1.100.70
Match goals 2.203.00
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 40%60%
Over 3.5 20%30%
Both teams scored 20%40%
Clean sheets 40%60%
Failed to score 50%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Zulte WaregemUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won4.505.88
Corners conceded5.253.25
Match total9.759.1310.01
Over 8.575% 6/863% 5/8
Over 9.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.001.88
Opponent cards2.251.88
Match total3.253.763.36
Over 3.538% 3/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
Zulte WaregemUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won5.204.80
Corners conceded4.803.90
Match total10.008.7010.01
Over 8.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 10.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.002.00
Opponent cards2.301.90
Match total3.303.903.36
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Zulte Waregem8 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 1 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United OH Leuven Jan 3016:00 KVC Westerlo Genk Jan 3016:00 Anderlecht Gent Jan 3016:00 Zulte Waregem Union St. Gilloise Jan 3016:00 St. Truiden KV Mechelen Jan 3016:00 SK Beveren Kortrijk Jan 3016:00 Antwerp Club Brugge KV Jan 3016:00 Cercle Brugge Standard Liege Jan 3016:00 RAAL La Louvière Charleroi Jan 3016:00