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Insights.

Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

Bundesliga · 12 signals · 12 clubs in this view

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Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

Bayern MünchenGoals accompanied by a positive chance balanceInsight Score75/100

Goals scored exceed the current league reference, alongside a positive observed xG profile. The sources have different windows; both describe past performances rather than the next result.

Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
3.8
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+2.15
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 75/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
46.5
Context
80.0
Quality
60.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — Bundesliga 2026-2027: 1.84 goals per team/match, 54 matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.27; xG against 1.12. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Bayer LeverkusenWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score73/100

A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.

Wins in a rowLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
5
Points minus expected8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+3.5
Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
2.8
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.10
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 73/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
73.3
Recency
64.1
Context
100.0
Quality
58.3

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
  • Points minus expected — Points 19; xPts 15.5. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Goals scored / match — Bundesliga 2026-2027: 1.84 goals per team/match, 54 matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.35; xG against 1.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Borussia DortmundDefensive consistency, positive chance balanceInsight Score60/100

Clean sheets and low goals conceded accompany a positive observed xG balance. The xG profile describes overall chance balance; it is not, by itself, proof of strong defending.

Clean sheetsLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
4/8
Goals conceded / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
0.9
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.89
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 60/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
59.3
Recency
46.5
Context
80.0
Quality
60.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Clean sheets — Bundesliga 2026-2027: 1.84 goals per team/match, 54 matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Goals conceded / match — Bundesliga 2026-2027: 1.84 goals per team/match, 54 matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-18 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.85; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Hamburger SVPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score60/100

Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.

Points minus expected6/6 current-league matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+3.2
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−0.52
Wins in a rowLast 6 recorded matches · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
3
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 60/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
43.6
Recency
62.0
Context
100.0
Quality
46.7

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 9; xPts 5.8. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 4. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.11; xG against 1.63. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

Performance12 signals · 12 clubs

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Bayern München xG difference per match +2.15 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG51
Observed xG Bayern München +2.15 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for3.27xG against1.12

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.27; xG against 1.12. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 51/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
3.27
xG against
1.12

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Bayer Leverkusen xG difference per match +1.10 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG42
Observed xG Bayer Leverkusen +1.10 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.35xG against1.25

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.35; xG against 1.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 42/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
73.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.35
xG against
1.25

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Borussia Dortmund xG difference per match +0.89 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG37
Observed xG Borussia Dortmund +0.89 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.85xG against0.96

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.85; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 37/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
59.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.85
xG against
0.96

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG difference per match −0.78 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG34
Observed xG Borussia Mönchengladbach −0.78 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.26xG against2.04

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.26; xG against 2.04. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 34/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
52.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.26
xG against
2.04

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Union Berlin xG difference per match −0.69 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG32
Observed xG Union Berlin −0.69 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.31xG against2.00

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.31; xG against 2. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 32/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
46.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.31
xG against
2.00

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
FSV Mainz 05 xG difference per match +0.62 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG30
Observed xG FSV Mainz 05 +0.62 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.21xG against1.59

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.21; xG against 1.59. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 30/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
41.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.21
xG against
1.59

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
SC Paderborn 07 xG difference per match −0.53 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG28
Observed xG SC Paderborn 07 −0.53 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.16xG against1.69

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.16; xG against 1.69. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 28/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
35.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.16
xG against
1.69

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Hamburger SV xG difference per match −0.52 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG28
Observed xG Hamburger SV −0.52 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.11xG against1.63

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.11; xG against 1.63. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 28/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
34.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.11
xG against
1.63

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
SC Freiburg xG difference per match +0.35 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG SC Freiburg +0.35 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.52xG against1.17

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.52; xG against 1.17. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
23.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.52
xG against
1.17

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
RB Leipzig xG difference per match +0.35 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG RB Leipzig +0.35 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.92xG against1.57

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.92; xG against 1.57. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
23.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.92
xG against
1.57

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Werder Bremen xG difference per match −0.50 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG28
Observed xG Werder Bremen −0.50 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.31xG against1.81

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.31; xG against 1.81. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 28/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
33.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.31
xG against
1.81

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
FC Augsburg xG difference per match −0.23 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG21
Observed xG FC Augsburg −0.23 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.02xG against2.25

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.02; xG against 2.25. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 21/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
15.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.02
xG against
2.25

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →

Showing 1–12 of 12 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

Explore methodology →