Football / The bigger picture

Insights.

Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

La Liga · 14 signals · 14 clubs in this view

Explore all signals ↓

Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

BarcelonaWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score84/100

A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.

Wins in a rowLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-27 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
10+
Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+6.3
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-27 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
4.3
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+2.60
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 84/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
62.0
Context
100.0
Quality
67.9

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
  • Points minus expected — Points 33; xPts 26.7. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Goals scored / match — La Liga 2026-2027: 1.53 goals per team/match, 88 matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.55; xG against 0.95. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Real MadridWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score79/100

A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.

Wins in a rowLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
3
Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+3.7
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
2.7
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.26
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 79/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
84.0
Recency
64.1
Context
100.0
Quality
67.9

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
  • Points minus expected — Points 27; xPts 23.3. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Goals scored / match — La Liga 2026-2027: 1.53 goals per team/match, 88 matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.32; xG against 1.06. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
VillarrealChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score68/100

A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.

Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
−4.6
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.82
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.6
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 68/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
54.7
Recency
62.0
Context
100.0
Quality
67.9

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 12; xPts 16.6. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.12; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Goals scored / match — La Liga 2026-2027: 1.53 goals per team/match, 88 matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
Real SociedadGoals at both endsInsight Score57/100

Scoring and conceding are both above the current league reference, with both teams scoring regularly. The result window spans all competitions; this comparison is not adjusted for opposition.

Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.9
Goals conceded / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.9
Both teams scoredLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
80%
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−0.44
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 57/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
41.8
Recency
48.1
Context
80.0
Quality
70.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — La Liga 2026-2027: 1.53 goals per team/match, 88 matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Goals conceded / match — La Liga 2026-2027: 1.53 goals per team/match, 88 matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Both teams scored — La Liga 2026-2027: 1.53 goals per team/match, 88 matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.28; xG against 1.72. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
SevillaPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score53/100

Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.

Points minus expected9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+4.0
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−0.45
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 53/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
42.9
Recency
48.1
Context
80.0
Quality
47.5

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 14; xPts 10. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 7. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.03; xG against 1.48. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

Performance14 signals · 14 clubs

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Barcelona xG difference per match +2.60 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG51
Observed xG Barcelona +2.60 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for3.55xG against0.95

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.55; xG against 0.95. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 51/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
3.55
xG against
0.95

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Real Madrid xG difference per match +1.26 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG45
Observed xG Real Madrid +1.26 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.32xG against1.06

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.32; xG against 1.06. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 45/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
84.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.32
xG against
1.06

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Malaga xG difference per match −0.84 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG36
Observed xG Malaga −0.84 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.84xG against1.68

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.84; xG against 1.68. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 36/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
56.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.84
xG against
1.68

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Getafe xG difference per match −0.81 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG35
Observed xG Getafe −0.81 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.58xG against1.39

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.58; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 35/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
54.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.58
xG against
1.39

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Villarreal xG difference per match +0.82 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG35
Observed xG Villarreal +0.82 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.12xG against1.30

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.12; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 35/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
54.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.12
xG against
1.30

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Elche xG difference per match −0.74 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG33
Observed xG Elche −0.74 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.98xG against1.72

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.98; xG against 1.72. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 33/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
49.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.98
xG against
1.72

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Racing Santander xG difference per match −0.70 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG32
Observed xG Racing Santander −0.70 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.47xG against2.17

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.47; xG against 2.17. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 32/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
46.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.47
xG against
2.17

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Atletico Madrid xG difference per match +0.57 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG29
Observed xG Atletico Madrid +0.57 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.70xG against1.13

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.7; xG against 1.13. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 29/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
38.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.70
xG against
1.13

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Rayo Vallecano xG difference per match −0.53 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG28
Observed xG Rayo Vallecano −0.53 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.23xG against1.76

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.23; xG against 1.76. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 28/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
35.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.23
xG against
1.76

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Athletic Club xG difference per match +0.33 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG Athletic Club +0.33 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.46xG against1.13

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.46; xG against 1.13. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
22.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.46
xG against
1.13

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Sevilla xG difference per match −0.45 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG27
Observed xG Sevilla −0.45 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.03xG against1.48

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.03; xG against 1.48. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 27/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
30.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.03
xG against
1.48

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Real Sociedad xG difference per match −0.44 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG26
Observed xG Real Sociedad −0.44 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.28xG against1.72

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.28; xG against 1.72. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 26/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
29.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.28
xG against
1.72

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Valencia xG difference per match −0.42 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG26
Observed xG Valencia −0.42 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.08xG against1.50

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.08; xG against 1.5. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 26/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
28.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.08
xG against
1.50

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Levante xG difference per match −0.36 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG Levante −0.36 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.43xG against1.79

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.43; xG against 1.79. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
24.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.43
xG against
1.79

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →

Showing 1–14 of 14 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

Explore methodology →