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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

Premier League · 11 signals · 11 clubs in this view

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Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

Manchester UnitedChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score70/100

A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.

Points minus expected9/9 current-league matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
−5.8
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.26
Goals scored / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-22 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.6
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 70/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
62.1
Recency
63.3
Context
100.0
Quality
63.3

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 10; xPts 15.8. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 6. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Goals scored / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
ArsenalDefensive consistency, positive chance balanceInsight Score68/100

Clean sheets and low goals conceded accompany a positive observed xG balance. The xG profile describes overall chance balance; it is not, by itself, proof of strong defending.

Clean sheetsLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
6/9
Goals conceded / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
0.6
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.71
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 68/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
76.2
Recency
47.5
Context
80.0
Quality
65.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Clean sheets — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Goals conceded / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.85. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
BrightonWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score68/100

A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.

Wins in a rowLast 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
4
Points minus expected7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+4.6
Goals scored / matchLast 7 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
3.3
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.74
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 68/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
62.8
Recency
63.3
Context
100.0
Quality
51.7

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
  • Points minus expected — Points 16; xPts 11.4. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Goals scored / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.01; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
Manchester CityGoals accompanied by a positive chance balanceInsight Score58/100

Goals scored exceed the current league reference, alongside a positive observed xG profile. The sources have different windows; both describe past performances rather than the next result.

Goals scored / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
2.6
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.77
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 58/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
51.3
Recency
45.9
Context
80.0
Quality
65.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — Premier League 2026-2027: 1.45 goals per team/match, 70 matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.16; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
ChelseaPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score52/100

Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.

Points minus expected7/7 current-league matches · 2026-08-24 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+3.7
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−0.30
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 52/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
46.3
Recency
45.9
Context
80.0
Quality
42.5

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 13; xPts 9.3. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 5. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.2; xG against 1.5. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

Performance11 signals · 11 clubs

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Manchester City xG difference per match +0.77 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG34
Observed xG Manchester City +0.77 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.16xG against1.39

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.16; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 34/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
51.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.16
xG against
1.39

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Brighton xG difference per match +0.74 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG33
Observed xG Brighton +0.74 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.01xG against1.27

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.01; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 33/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
49.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.01
xG against
1.27

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Arsenal xG difference per match +0.71 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG33
Observed xG Arsenal +0.71 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.56xG against0.85

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.85. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 33/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
47.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.56
xG against
0.85

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Bournemouth xG difference per match +0.67 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG32
Observed xG Bournemouth +0.67 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.82xG against1.15

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.82; xG against 1.15. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 32/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
44.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.82
xG against
1.15

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Liverpool xG difference per match +0.60 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG30
Observed xG Liverpool +0.60 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.89xG against1.29

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.89; xG against 1.29. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 30/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
40.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.89
xG against
1.29

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Fulham xG difference per match +0.31 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG23
Observed xG Fulham +0.31 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.61xG against1.30

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.61; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 23/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
20.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.61
xG against
1.30

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Manchester United xG difference per match +0.26 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG22
Observed xG Manchester United +0.26 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.56xG against1.30

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 22/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
17.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.56
xG against
1.30

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Newcastle xG difference per match −0.41 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG26
Observed xG Newcastle −0.41 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.19xG against1.60

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.19; xG against 1.6. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 26/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
27.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.19
xG against
1.60

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Leeds xG difference per match −0.36 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG Leeds −0.36 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.29xG against1.65

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.29; xG against 1.65. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
24.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.29
xG against
1.65

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Crystal Palace xG difference per match −0.34 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG Crystal Palace −0.34 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.52xG against1.86

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.52; xG against 1.86. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
22.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.52
xG against
1.86

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Chelsea xG difference per match −0.30 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG23
Observed xG Chelsea −0.30 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.20xG against1.50

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.2; xG against 1.5. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 23/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
20.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.20
xG against
1.50

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →

Showing 1–11 of 11 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

Explore methodology →