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Insights.

Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

Primeira Liga · 14 signals · 14 clubs in this view

Explore all signals ↓

Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

BenficaGoals accompanied by a positive chance balanceInsight Score70/100

Goals scored exceed the current league reference, alongside a positive observed xG profile. The sources have different windows; both describe past performances rather than the next result.

Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-20 → 2026-10-15 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
2.7
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.26
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 70/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
84.0
Recency
43.7
Context
80.0
Quality
70.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.03; xG against 0.77. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
GuimaraesChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score64/100

A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.

Points minus expected8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
−5.2
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.32
Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
0.6
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 64/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
60.0
Recency
51.0
Context
100.0
Quality
53.3

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 5; xPts 10.2. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.39; xG against 1.07. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Goals scored / match — Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
Academico ViseuPoints ahead. Chance balance tells another story.Insight Score62/100

Points exceed the stored forecasts, while the observed xG profile has no positive balance. Results and chances tell different stories; this does not establish that a reversal is due.

Points minus expected8/8 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-10 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+4.8
Observed xG difference / match8-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−0.76
Wins in a rowLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-10 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
4
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 62/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
55.4
Recency
49.4
Context
100.0
Quality
50.7

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 14; xPts 9.2. Saved pre: 0; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.02; xG against 1.78. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
Santa ClaraDefensive consistency, positive chance balanceInsight Score60/100

Clean sheets and low goals conceded accompany a positive observed xG balance. The xG profile describes overall chance balance; it is not, by itself, proof of strong defending.

Clean sheetsLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-10 → 2026-10-10 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
5/8
Goals conceded / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-10 → 2026-10-10 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
0.5
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.43
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 60/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
65.4
Recency
37.0
Context
80.0
Quality
60.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Clean sheets — Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Goals conceded / match — Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.18; xG against 0.75. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
EstrelaGoals at both endsInsight Score53/100

Scoring and conceding are both above the current league reference, with both teams scoring regularly. The result window spans all competitions; this comparison is not adjusted for opposition.

Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.8
Goals conceded / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
1.9
Both teams scoredLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-11 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
75%
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
−0.66
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 53/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
44.0
Recency
38.3
Context
80.0
Quality
60.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Goals conceded / match — Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Both teams scored — Primeira Liga 2026-2027: 1.38 goals per team/match, 72 matches · 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-19 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.09; xG against 1.75. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

Performance14 signals · 14 clubs

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Benfica xG difference per match +1.26 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG45
Observed xG Benfica +1.26 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.03xG against0.77

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.03; xG against 0.77. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 45/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
84.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.03
xG against
0.77

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Rio Ave xG difference per match −0.92 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG37
Observed xG Rio Ave −0.92 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.73xG against1.65

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.73; xG against 1.65. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 37/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
61.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.73
xG against
1.65

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Moreirense xG difference per match −0.85 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG36
Observed xG Moreirense −0.85 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.53xG against1.38

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.53; xG against 1.38. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 36/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
56.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.53
xG against
1.38

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Casa Pia xG difference per match −0.80 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG35
Observed xG Casa Pia −0.80 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.58xG against1.38

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.58; xG against 1.38. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 35/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
53.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.58
xG against
1.38

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Estoril xG difference per match −0.73 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG33
Observed xG Estoril −0.73 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.02xG against1.75

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.02; xG against 1.75. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 33/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
48.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.02
xG against
1.75

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Nacional xG difference per match −0.71 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG33
Observed xG Nacional −0.71 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.05xG against1.76

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.05; xG against 1.76. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 33/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
47.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.05
xG against
1.76

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Academico Viseu xG difference per match −0.76 Underlying performance · 8-match window Observed xG31
Observed xG Academico Viseu −0.76 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 8-match window xG for1.02xG against1.78

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 8-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.02; xG against 1.78. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 31/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
46.8
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
32.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 8-match window

xG for
1.02
xG against
1.78

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Sporting CP xG difference per match +0.67 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG32
Observed xG Sporting CP +0.67 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.71xG against1.04

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.71; xG against 1.04. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 32/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
44.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.71
xG against
1.04

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Estrela xG difference per match −0.66 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG31
Observed xG Estrela −0.66 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.09xG against1.75

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.09; xG against 1.75. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 31/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
44.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.09
xG against
1.75

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
FC Porto xG difference per match +0.62 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG30
Observed xG FC Porto +0.62 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.75xG against1.13

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.75; xG against 1.13. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 30/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
41.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.75
xG against
1.13

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Santa Clara xG difference per match +0.43 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG26
Observed xG Santa Clara +0.43 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.18xG against0.75

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.18; xG against 0.75. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 26/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
28.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.18
xG against
0.75

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Guimaraes xG difference per match +0.32 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG23
Observed xG Guimaraes +0.32 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.39xG against1.07

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.39; xG against 1.07. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 23/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
21.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.39
xG against
1.07

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Maritimo xG difference per match −0.36 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG Maritimo −0.36 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.05xG against1.41

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.05; xG against 1.41. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
24.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.05
xG against
1.41

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Famalicao xG difference per match −0.23 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG21
Observed xG Famalicao −0.23 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.90xG against1.13

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.9; xG against 1.13. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 21/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
15.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.90
xG against
1.13

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →

Showing 1–14 of 14 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

Explore methodology →