Nacional

16th · Primeira Liga · 4 points · Matches played: 8

20 points behind FC Porto · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-3.4 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -6.1 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 17.1-3.4
World Rank 427th Global, by Elo
Primeira Liga Rank 17th L90 Strength
Last Rio AveA xG 1.3–1.7 2–3 Next SC BragaH 17%

Compare clubs

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Our take

Up against it.

Nacional are short of quality at both ends, with one of the weaker attack in the league and one of the weaker defence in the league. Across the 8 league matches with forecasts, they have collected around 5 fewer points than our pre-match forecasts predicted. The squad is fully fit, and The toughest of the next 3 matches is the visit of SC Braga.

Their results hold up much the same at home and away.

  • Relegation 59%Likely 17th · 28 projected points
  • Next 3: about 3 of 9 points Toughest vs SC Braga · , 17% to win
  • Full squadNobody reported missing
  • 4 pts vs 8.8 expected-4.8 vs pre-match expectations · 8 matches with forecasts

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Nacional. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals for this club in each category.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses observed Playing style averages; window size is not xG coverage and the two metrics can have different denominators. Points minus xPts uses the same covered current-league matches and stored forecasts as Club strength, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking
The full picture, with the evidence behind every signal.View all Club insights →

Season

League position and season results.

Overview

2026-2027
Primeira LigaView table →
Position
16th/ 18
Points
40.50 PPG
Played
8
League gap
20pts behind leader
12.5%Win %
Wins1
Draws1
Losses6

Expected metrics · 5 of 8 matches covered

Goals For
91.13 / game
xG 5.78 2.22 more goals than expected. vs 8 goals
Goals Against
182.25 / game
xGA 9.58 0.58 fewer conceded than expected. vs 9 conceded
Goal Difference
-9-1.12 / game
xGD -3.80 Goal difference is 2.80 higher than expected. vs -1 GD
Clean Sheets
113% of games

League standings

Primeira Liga · 2026-2027

Full standings →

Swipe to explore the league table →

Full Primeira Liga table, Nacional highlighted
#ClubRatingPWDLGDPtsForm
1– FC Porto 80 8800 +16 24
2– Benfica 82 8611 +17 19
3– Sporting CP 84 8530 +11 18
4– Santa Clara 34 8530 +8 18
5– Arouca 34 8422 +4 14
6▲ GIL Vicente 34 8422 +2 14
7– Academico Viseu 32 8422 +1 14
8▲ Alverca 30 8323 +1 11
9▼ SC Braga 56 8323 -1 11
10▼ Estrela 20 8242 -1 10
11– Maritimo 16 8224 -5 8
12– Moreirense 25 8224 -7 8
13– Famalicao 38 8143 -1 7
14▲ Rio Ave 21 8215 -9 7
15▼ Guimaraes 27 8125 -5 5
16▼ Nacional 17 8116 -9 4
17– Casa Pia 18 8116 -14 4
18– Estoril 22 8026 -8 2

18 clubs · ▲ Up · ▼ Down · – Unchanged · Since the start of the latest played matchweek.

League position over time

Position by matchweek

Higher is better. One point per matchweek; partial rounds are marked. Postponed games count when played. Hover, tap or focus a point for details.

View position history
Nacional league position by matchweek
MWResults through (UTC)PositionPtsP
110 Aug 2026911
2 · Partial17 Aug 2026542
3 · Partial24 Aug 2026843
431 Aug 20261044
510 Sep 20261145
614 Sep 20261546
720 Sep 20261547
819 Oct 20261648

Squad 31 players · this season, all competitions

Top scorer
N. Kader2 goals
Most assists
Daniel Júnior1 assists
Best rated
Léo Santos7.24 avg rating
Most minutes
R. Bellucci720 min
Key to the model
N. KaderCore · weight 2.70
PlayerAgeAppsMinGARatingModel role
Goalkeepers
R. Bellucci 20 8 (8) 720 0 0 6.47 starter
João Gonçalves 25 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Kevyn 21 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Defenders
Zé Vitor 25 8 (8) 675 1 0 6.73 starter
Wesley Gasolina 26 7 (6) 496 1 0 6.64 starter
W. Kokolo 26 6 (4) 427 0 1 6.30 starter
Léo Santos 27 5 (5) 405 1 1 7.24 starter
Francisco Gonçalves 22 4 (4) 360 0 1 6.55 rotation
S. Gavriel 24 8 (2) 281 0 0 6.33 rotation
D. de la Cruz de la Cruz 22 5 (1) 143 0 0 6.44 rotation
Ivanildo Fernandes 30 1 (0) 45 0 0 6.02 depth
José Gomes 30 1 (1) 45 0 0 5.88 rotation
Midfielders
Miguel Baeza 26 8 (7) 566 1 0 6.53 rotation
Matheus Dias 24 7 (7) 560 0 0 6.32 starter
Pablo Ruan 23 7 (6) 506 1 0 6.66 rotation
M. Jensen 21 6 (5) 369 0 0 6.62 starter
Liziero 28 4 (4) 338 1 1 7.03 starter
Filipe Soares 27 4 (3) 249 0 0 6.70 rotation
C. Labidi 25 4 (2) 222 0 0 6.43 rotation
Deivison 20 4 (1) 169 0 0 6.55 rotation
D. Dongmo 25 1 (1) 90 0 0 5.64 rotation
Joel Silva 23 3 (1) 72 0 0 6.28 rotation
?F. Nava — 2 (0) 34 0 0 6.23 depth
M. J. Iseppe 20 1 (0) 10 0 0 6.70 depth
Martim Watts 21 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Forwards
Daniel Júnior 24 7 (6) 443 0 1 6.64 rotation
M. Djaló 23 6 (2) 261 1 0 6.42 rotation
A. Obando 20 6 (1) 182 0 0 6.50 rotation
M. Song 27 3 (2) 171 0 0 6.43 starter
N. Kader 23 1 (1) 81 2 0 ★ 8.52 core
F. Nava — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —

Stats are this season in all competitions. Model role is how much the availability model weighs each player before the game with SC Braga: core, starter, rotation or depth, from several seasons of minutes and ratings.

Performance

Strength, recent form and playing style.

Strength Primeira Liga · 18 clubs

L90 Strength17th of 18
17 Elo 1410 · World #427
Current Strength
17 With absences before 25 Oct: +0 Elo
Attack17th of 18
15 Scores 1.03 per match against an average top-five side
Defence18th of 18
13 Concedes 2.40 per match against an average top-five side

In forecast League average

L90 Strength comes from Elo; Attack and Defence from goals scored and conceded, expected goals (xG) and shots on target, all on fixed 0–100 scales shared by every league. These are the numbers the forecast uses.

Strong at both ends Defence first Attack first Struggling Attack → Defence → FC Porto: attack 74, defence 79, L90 Strength 80 Benfica: attack 81, defence 81, L90 Strength 82 Sporting CP: attack 75, defence 81, L90 Strength 84 Santa Clara: attack 29, defence 53, L90 Strength 34 Arouca: attack 28, defence 37, L90 Strength 34 GIL Vicente: attack 32, defence 50, L90 Strength 34 Academico Viseu: attack 28, defence 31, L90 Strength 32 Alverca: attack 38, defence 42, L90 Strength 30 SC Braga: attack 41, defence 59, L90 Strength 56 Estrela: attack 24, defence 27, L90 Strength 20 Maritimo: attack 15, defence 20, L90 Strength 16 Moreirense: attack 17, defence 27, L90 Strength 25 Famalicao: attack 24, defence 36, L90 Strength 38 Rio Ave: attack 18, defence 21, L90 Strength 21 Guimaraes: attack 28, defence 39, L90 Strength 27 Nacional: attack 15, defence 13, L90 Strength 17 Casa Pia: attack 13, defence 25, L90 Strength 18 Estoril: attack 21, defence 29, L90 Strength 22
Every Primeira Liga club on the Attack and Defence scales. Dashed lines are the league average. Tap a crest to open that club.

Form last 5 for the index · last 8 listed

5
Form index · 18th of 18 in league
Points, last 5
0
Median top-5 club
8.3
Own forecasts
5.4 -5.4
Table16th L90 Strength17th Form18th

Table position in line with their strength.

Form compares points with what a median top-five club (L90 Strength 50) would take from the same fixtures, so wins over strong sides count for more; 50 is a typical run. "Own forecasts" is the gap to this club's pre-match expectations. Form is context: in our tests it did not improve the forecast.

  • L11 OctA · Rio Ave2–31.0 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Famalicao0–41.1 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Alverca1–31.4 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Sporting CP0–20.3 xPts
  • L30 AugH · Estrela2–31.6 xPts
  • L23 AugA · Guimaraes0–11.0 xPts
  • W16 AugH · Estoril2–01.5 xPts
  • D10 AugA · Santa Clara2–21.0 xPts

Trends last 8, all competitions

Scored 5/8
Clean sheet 1/8
Conceded 2+ 6/8
Over 2.5 5/8
Both teams scored 4/8

Playing style vs Primeira Liga average

NACLeagueRank
Goals scored 1.13 1.37 11th
Goals conceded 2.25 1.37 18th
xG 1.16 1.26 9th
xG allowed 1.92 1.23 18th
Scored in 63% 73% 13th
Clean sheets 13% 28% 11th
NACLeagueRank
Shots 11.00 12.17 11th
Shots on target 3.57 4.15 11th
On target share 28% 33% 14th
Box share 60% 61% 12th
Conversion 10% 11% 13th
NACLeagueRank
Shots allowed 14.63 12.12 14th
On target allowed 6.25 4.11 18th
Blocks 3.14 3.19 9th
Save rate 58% 67% 17th
NACLeagueRank
Possession 50% 50% 9th
Passes 406 426 10th
Pass accuracy 82% 83% 10th
NACLeagueRank
Fouls 11.13 12.61 5th
Fouls suffered 12.25 12.59 12th
Yellow cards 1.25 2.13 2nd
Red cards 0.00 0.05 1st
This league season, per match · 8 games. Rank among 18 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.
NACLeagueRank
Goals scored 1.10 1.31 10th
Goals conceded 2.00 1.35 17th
xG 1.05 1.15 10th
xG allowed 1.76 1.30 17th
Scored in 60% 71% 12th
Clean sheets 20% 28% 11th
NACLeagueRank
Shots 10.50 11.88 13th
Shots on target 3.22 3.99 16th
On target share 28% 33% 15th
Box share 60% 60% 11th
Conversion 11% 11% 11th
NACLeagueRank
Shots allowed 14.20 12.49 14th
On target allowed 5.60 4.13 16th
Blocks 3.22 3.33 10th
Save rate 63% 69% 11th
NACLeagueRank
Possession 49% 50% 9th
Passes 390 417 11th
Pass accuracy 81% 83% 12th
NACLeagueRank
Fouls 12.20 12.49 8th
Fouls suffered 11.90 12.54 12th
Yellow cards 1.60 2.18 3rd
Red cards 0.00 0.06 1st
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 games. Rank among 18 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.

Home and away this league season

Home0.75pts per game1-0-3 · 1.2–2.5 goals · 4 games
Away0.25pts per game0-1-3 · 1.0–2.0 goals · 4 games

Goal timing this league season · 8 games

1 3 0-15
2 16-30
3 7 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90

scored conceded, per 15 minutes

In forecastVia Att/DefContextLeague average

Possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Goals, xG and shots on target feed the Attack and Defence ratings. The rest describes how the team plays and does not change the forecast.

Team rankings Primeira Liga · 8 games · rank of 18

Attack

GF 9 10th / 18
GF/G 1.13 10th / 18
xG/G 1.16 9th / 18
G − xG -0.03 14th / 18

Defence

GA 18 18th / 18
GA/G 2.25 18th / 18
xGA/G 1.92 18th / 18
xGA − GA -0.33 12th / 18

Overall

Pts 4 16th / 18
xPts 8.8 14th / 18
PPG 0.50 16th / 18
TR 6.61 15th / 18
GD -9 16th / 18
xGD -6.1 14th / 18
W 1 14th / 18
L 6 16th / 18

Scorelines

  • 2–3×2
  • 2–2×1
  • 2–0×1
  • 0–1×1
  • 0–2×1
  • 1–3×1

Goals per game both teams

0% 0
13% 1
25% 2
0% 3
38% 4
25% 5+

Totals club · league

Over 1.5
88%75%
Over 2.5
63%56%
Over 3.5
63%36%
Both scored
50%51%
Clean sheet
13%27%
Failed to score
38%27%
ClubLeague average

This league season only. xPts adds up our pre-match win and draw chances (pure EloLambda, the same numbers as Form). xG and TR come from match data and describe the season so far; none of these rankings change the forecast directly.