Football / The bigger picture

Insights.

Go beyond the result. Follow the patterns. See the evidence.

How to read the signals →

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Competition selects current clubs. Result windows include all recorded competitions; points comparisons use covered current-league matches.

League insights

UEFA Champions League · 30 signals · 30 clubs in this view

Explore all signals ↓

Automatically selected connections · one story per club · experimental Insight Score orders stories, not teams.

BarcelonaWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score82/100

A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.

Wins in a rowLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-27 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
10+
Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-23 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+6.3
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-27 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
4.3
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+2.60
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 82/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
61.6
Context
100.0
Quality
58.5

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
  • Points minus expected — Points 33; xPts 26.7. Saved pre: 3; reconstructed: 8. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Goals scored / match — UEFA Champions League 2026-2027: 2.04 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-08 → 2026-10-14 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.55; xG against 0.95. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
FeyenoordWinning, and exceeding expectationsInsight Score78/100

A winning run and points above forecast expectations stand out together. Separate the recorded results from the chance balance; the points comparison covers a different set of league matches.

Wins in a rowLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
5
Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-09 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
+5.9
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-16 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
3.4
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.33
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 78/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
88.7
Recency
61.6
Context
100.0
Quality
57.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Wins in a row — A run of 10 is a lower bound. Related result sequences share one evidence family.
  • Points minus expected — Points 26; xPts 20.1. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Goals scored / match — UEFA Champions League 2026-2027: 2.04 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-08 → 2026-10-14 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.42; xG against 1.09. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
PSV EindhovenChance balance ahead of the points returnInsight Score74/100

A positive observed xG balance sits alongside points below stored forecast expectations. These are different windows: inspect finishing, conceding and individual matches before assigning a cause.

Points minus expected11/11 current-league matches · 2026-08-08 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Stored LOAD90 forecasts · same covered games
−3.9
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+1.16
Goals scored / matchLast 10 recorded matches · 2026-08-15 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
2.6
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 74/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
77.3
Recency
61.6
Context
100.0
Quality
57.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Points minus expected — Points 20; xPts 23.9. Saved pre: 2; reconstructed: 9. No claim that the gap must reverse. This window differs from the recorded-results and xG windows.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.27; xG against 1.11. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
  • Goals scored / match — UEFA Champions League 2026-2027: 2.04 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-08 → 2026-10-14 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
Bayern MünchenGoals accompanied by a positive chance balanceInsight Score72/100

Goals scored exceed the current league reference, alongside a positive observed xG profile. The sources have different windows; both describe past performances rather than the next result.

Goals scored / matchLast 8 recorded matches · 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-17 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
3.8
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+2.15
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 72/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
46.2
Context
80.0
Quality
48.8

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Goals scored / match — UEFA Champions League 2026-2027: 2.04 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-08 → 2026-10-14 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.27; xG against 1.12. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.
ArsenalDefensive consistency, positive chance balanceInsight Score71/100

Clean sheets and low goals conceded accompany a positive observed xG balance. The xG profile describes overall chance balance; it is not, by itself, proof of strong defending.

Clean sheetsLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
6/9
Goals conceded / matchLast 9 recorded matches · 2026-08-21 → 2026-10-18 UTC
Recorded scores · all competitions
0.6
Observed xG difference / match10-match profile · exact dates unavailable
Observed match xG · available averages
+0.71
Full club analysis →Different windows, shown individually. Connections invite analysis; they do not establish a cause.
Sources, limitations & score
Insight Score 71/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
93.8
Recency
47.7
Context
80.0
Quality
52.4

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

  • Clean sheets — UEFA Champions League 2026-2027: 2.04 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-08 → 2026-10-14 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Goals conceded / match — UEFA Champions League 2026-2027: 2.04 goals per team/match, 36 matches · 2026-09-08 → 2026-10-14 UTC. Reference only: the club window spans all recorded competitions; no opponent adjustment.
  • Observed xG difference / match — Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.85. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Each signal belongs to one category. Categories sum to All signals; stories combine related evidence across categories.

Performance30 signals · 30 clubs

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Barcelona xG difference per match +2.60 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG51
Observed xG Barcelona +2.60 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for3.55xG against0.95

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.55; xG against 0.95. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 51/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
3.55
xG against
0.95

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Bayern München xG difference per match +2.15 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG51
Observed xG Bayern München +2.15 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for3.27xG against1.12

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 3.27; xG against 1.12. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 51/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
100.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
3.27
xG against
1.12

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Inter xG difference per match +1.37 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG48
Observed xG Inter +1.37 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.73xG against1.36

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.73; xG against 1.36. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 48/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
91.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.73
xG against
1.36

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Feyenoord xG difference per match +1.33 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG47
Observed xG Feyenoord +1.33 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.42xG against1.09

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.42; xG against 1.09. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 47/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
88.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.42
xG against
1.09

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Real Madrid xG difference per match +1.26 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG45
Observed xG Real Madrid +1.26 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.32xG against1.06

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.32; xG against 1.06. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 45/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
84.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.32
xG against
1.06

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Fenerbahce xG difference per match +1.23 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG45
Observed xG Fenerbahce +1.23 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.57xG against1.34

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.57; xG against 1.34. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 45/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
82.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.57
xG against
1.34

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
PSV Eindhoven xG difference per match +1.16 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG43
Observed xG PSV Eindhoven +1.16 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.27xG against1.11

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.27; xG against 1.11. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 43/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
77.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.27
xG against
1.11

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Paris Saint Germain xG difference per match +1.09 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG41
Observed xG Paris Saint Germain +1.09 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.37xG against1.28

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.37; xG against 1.28. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 41/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
72.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.37
xG against
1.28

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Slavia Praha xG difference per match −0.86 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG36
Observed xG Slavia Praha −0.86 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.09xG against1.95

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.09; xG against 1.95. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 36/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
57.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.09
xG against
1.95

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
AS Roma xG difference per match +1.08 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG41
Observed xG AS Roma +1.08 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.19xG against1.11

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.19; xG against 1.11. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 41/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
72.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.19
xG against
1.11

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Napoli xG difference per match +1.02 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG40
Observed xG Napoli +1.02 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.81xG against0.79

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.81; xG against 0.79. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 40/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
68.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.81
xG against
0.79

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Borussia Dortmund xG difference per match +0.89 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG37
Observed xG Borussia Dortmund +0.89 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.85xG against0.96

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.85; xG against 0.96. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 37/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
59.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.85
xG against
0.96

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Club Brugge KV xG difference per match +0.87 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG36
Observed xG Club Brugge KV +0.87 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.61xG against1.74

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.61; xG against 1.74. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 36/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
58.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.61
xG against
1.74

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Villarreal xG difference per match +0.82 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG35
Observed xG Villarreal +0.82 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.12xG against1.30

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.12; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 35/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
54.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.12
xG against
1.30

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Lens xG difference per match +0.80 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG35
Observed xG Lens +0.80 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.25xG against1.45

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.25; xG against 1.45. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 35/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
53.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.25
xG against
1.45

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Manchester City xG difference per match +0.77 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG34
Observed xG Manchester City +0.77 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for2.16xG against1.39

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 2.16; xG against 1.39. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 34/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
51.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
2.16
xG against
1.39

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Galatasaray xG difference per match +0.75 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG34
Observed xG Galatasaray +0.75 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.97xG against1.22

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.97; xG against 1.22. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 34/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
50.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.97
xG against
1.22

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Arsenal xG difference per match +0.71 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG33
Observed xG Arsenal +0.71 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.56xG against0.85

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 0.85. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 33/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
47.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.56
xG against
0.85

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Sporting CP xG difference per match +0.67 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG32
Observed xG Sporting CP +0.67 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.71xG against1.04

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.71; xG against 1.04. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 32/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
44.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.71
xG against
1.04

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
FC Porto xG difference per match +0.62 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG30
Observed xG FC Porto +0.62 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.75xG against1.13

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.75; xG against 1.13. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 30/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
41.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.75
xG against
1.13

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
AEK Athens FC xG difference per match +0.61 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG30
Observed xG AEK Athens FC +0.61 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.77xG against1.16

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.77; xG against 1.16. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 30/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
40.7
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.77
xG against
1.16

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Liverpool xG difference per match +0.60 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG30
Observed xG Liverpool +0.60 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.89xG against1.29

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.89; xG against 1.29. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 30/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
40.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.89
xG against
1.29

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Atletico Madrid xG difference per match +0.57 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG29
Observed xG Atletico Madrid +0.57 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.70xG against1.13

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.7; xG against 1.13. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 29/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
38.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.70
xG against
1.13

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Slovan Bratislava xG difference per match −0.56 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG29
Observed xG Slovan Bratislava −0.56 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for0.79xG against1.35

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 0.79; xG against 1.35. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 29/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
37.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
0.79
xG against
1.35

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Como xG difference per match +0.47 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG27
Observed xG Como +0.47 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.88xG against1.41

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.88; xG against 1.41. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 27/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
31.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.88
xG against
1.41

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Lask Linz xG difference per match +0.39 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG25
Observed xG Lask Linz +0.39 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.72xG against1.33

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.72; xG against 1.33. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 25/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
26.0
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.72
xG against
1.33

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
RB Leipzig xG difference per match +0.35 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG24
Observed xG RB Leipzig +0.35 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.92xG against1.57

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.92; xG against 1.57. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 24/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
23.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.92
xG against
1.57

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Manchester United xG difference per match +0.26 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG22
Observed xG Manchester United +0.26 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.56xG against1.30

Chance creation is ahead of chances allowed in the observed playing-style profile. This describes the balance of chances, rather than the final scores.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.56; xG against 1.3. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 22/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
17.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.56
xG against
1.30

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Shakhtar Donetsk xG difference per match −0.23 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG21
Observed xG Shakhtar Donetsk −0.23 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.04xG against1.27

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.04; xG against 1.27. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 21/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
15.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.04
xG against
1.27

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →
Bodo/Glimt xG difference per match −0.20 Underlying performance · 10-match window Observed xG21
Observed xG Bodo/Glimt −0.20 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.42xG against1.62

Chances allowed exceed chances created in the observed playing-style profile. The two averages can have different xG coverage.

Observed match xG · available averages · 10-match profile · exact dates unavailable. Before next/latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC. xG for 1.42; xG against 1.62. Coverage counts are unavailable and denominators can differ. Recency receives zero for this undated source; quality is capped at 40.

Insight Score 21/100 Experimental · editorial interest
Deviation
13.3
Recency
0.0
Context
40.0
Quality
40.0

Uncalibrated selection heuristic. Not team strength, win probability or statistical significance. Sources keep their own windows; overlapping scorelines and forecast gaps receive reduced context credit.

Underlying performance · 10-match window

xG for
1.42
xG against
1.62

Difference of observed averages; xG coverage can differ between the two metrics. Profile is before the next or latest league fixture, not necessarily current UTC.

Full club analysis →

Showing 1–30 of 30 signals

About these insights
A little context goes a long way

Read the signal. Keep the context.

Insights describe what is recorded. Use club and match analysis to explore what comes next.

Insight Score · experimental editorial interest. This version uses 0.35D + 0.25R + 0.20C + 0.20Q. D measures heuristic deviation, R observation recency, C breadth of evidence families and Q data quality. These starting weights are uncalibrated. It is neither team strength, win probability, statistical significance nor forecast confidence. Related result signals share one family; different sources are not automatically statistically independent. Unknown dates receive zero recency; unknown xG coverage limits its quality component. League averages are context references, not opponent-adjusted estimates.

01

Check the window

Result signals use the last 10 recorded matches; away signals use the last 8 away matches. At least 5 are required. Missing and special results are excluded. A 10+ streak is a lower bound.

02

Read the chart

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored or conceded, capped at 6; zero keeps a marker. Teal / amber / red means win / draw / loss. Faded bars mean the event did not happen. Open the evidence for full scores.

03

Separate the sources

xG uses observed Playing style averages before the next or latest league fixture; coverage can differ between inputs. xPts comes from stored LOAD90 forecasts on identical covered games, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Types alternate for variety. Values are ordered within their own metric, without a combined ranking. These descriptive signals do not change the LOAD90 forecast.

Explore methodology →