1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund – 13 Sep 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 13 · 14:30 Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz

1. FC Heidenheim 17th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

0–2Full time

Borussia Dortmund 4th · 4 pts · 2 played DW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 29). Borussia Dortmund usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. 1. FC Heidenheim had 14 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 12.9 and had to travel 369 km.

Away travel369 kmRest days14 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

1. FC Heidenheim15%

Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund64%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.14

1. FC Heidenheim16%

Draw22%

Borussia Dortmund62%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.97

1. FC Heidenheim15%

Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund64%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.14

1. FC Heidenheim11%

Draw18%

Borussia Dortmund71%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.40

1. FC Heidenheim16%

Draw22%

Borussia Dortmund62%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.97

Over 2.5 60% Both score 55% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 101

Team strength

1. FC Heidenheim

Borussia Dortmund

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

48 AttackIn forecast 69

39 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1. FC Heidenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1. FC Heidenheim

Borussia Dortmund

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

2.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +1.18

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

6.00 ShotsContext 9.50

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

42% On target shareContext 68%

3.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

54% Box shareContext 85%

8% ConversionContext 32%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.50 Shots allowedContext 10.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

1.50 BlocksContext 2.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

60% Save rateContext 70%

41% PossessionIn forecast 57%

315 PassesContext 587

248 Accurate passesContext 521

79% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.51 Team ratingContext 7.02

11.00 FoulsContext 13.00

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

3.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 2.06

1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.74

50% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.40 ShotsContext 13.00

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

33% On target shareContext 46%

5.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.10

58% Box shareContext 78%

7% ConversionContext 22%

1.70 OffsidesContext 2.11

13.10 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

2.75 BlocksContext 2.80

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

61% Save rateContext 69%

44% PossessionIn forecast 53%

400 PassesContext 506

323 Accurate passesContext 434

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.13

10.00 FoulsContext 11.10

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1. FC Heidenheim

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km671 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Borussia Dortmund

Rest12.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel369 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1. FC Heidenheim	Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug	12.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	369 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	671 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1. FC Heidenheim Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

41D. Ramaj(G)

32L. Paqarada 5B. Gimber 6P. Mainka 23O. Traoré

20L. Kerber 3J. Schöppner

17M. Honsak 21A. Beck 22A. Ibrahimović

11B. Zivzivadze

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1G. Kobel(G)

5A. Bensebaini 3W. Anton 26J. Ryerson

24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 13P. Groß 2Yan Couto

14M. Beier 9S. Guirassy 27K. Adeyemi

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1. FC Heidenheim Absences are shown before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

1. FC Heidenheim+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

1. FC Heidenheim · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Borussia Dortmund · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 1. FC Heidenheim wins2 draws2 Borussia Dortmund wins

Goals per game1.25 – 2.00 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 25%

1 Feb 20251. FC Heidenheim1–2Borussia Dortmund
13 Sep 2024Borussia Dortmund4–21. FC Heidenheim
2 Feb 20241. FC Heidenheim0–0Borussia Dortmund
1 Sep 2023Borussia Dortmund2–21. FC Heidenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1. FC Heidenheim	Borussia Dortmund	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	3.00
Conceded per game	2.50	1.50
Match goals	3.00	4.50	3.11
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	60%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	1. FC Heidenheim	Borussia Dortmund	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	3.00
Conceded per game	2.50	1.50
Match goals	3.00	4.50	3.11
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	60%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1. FC Heidenheim	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	3.00
Corners conceded	4.50	5.50
Match total	7.00	8.50	10.28
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	3.50	2.00
Opponent cards	2.50	1.00
Match total	6.00	3.00	5.33
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2

	1. FC Heidenheim	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	5.11
Corners conceded	3.78	3.67
Match total	7.67	8.78	10.28
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.40
Opponent cards	1.40	1.30
Match total	3.60	2.70	5.33
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.85league 4.89

Red cards0.13league 0.37

Cards 5+55%league 58%

Fouls22.1league 23.1

Penalties0.29league 0.42

Home wins46%league 42%

1. FC Heidenheim3 with this referee

Record0-3-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D31 Mar 24A · VfB Stuttgart3–31
D13 Jan 24A · 1.FC Köln1–11
D26 Nov 23H · VfL Bochum0–04

Borussia Dortmund5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W5 Apr 25A · SC Freiburg4–10
W24 Aug 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–00
L4 Dec 21H · Bayern München2–32
L6 Nov 21A · RB Leipzig1–25
W27 Aug 21H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.