1. FC Heidenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 0 pts · 2 played
LL
0–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
4th · 4 pts · 2 played
DW
1. FC Heidenheim15.4%fair odds 6.50
Draw20.7%fair odds 4.83
Borussia Dortmund63.9%fair odds 1.56
Expected goals0.96 – 2.14total 3.11
Likeliest score0–210.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.3%9.72
- 1–29.9%10.10
- 1–19.7%10.28
- 0–19.1%10.98
- 0–37.4%13.60
- 1–37.1%14.13
- 0–05.0%20.15
- 2–24.8%20.98
- 2–14.4%22.49
- 0–43.9%25.38
Winning margin
1.4%
1. FC Heidenheim by 3+
fair 72.58
3.9%
1. FC Heidenheim by 2
fair 25.49
10.1%
1. FC Heidenheim by 1
fair 9.92
20.7%
Draw
fair 4.83
23.1%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.34
19.5%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 5.14
21.4%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 4.68
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
1. FC Heidenheim goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim win | 15.4% | 16.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 20.7% | 22.2% | -1.5 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 63.9% | 61.7% | +2.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 54.9% | +5.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.1% | 51.9% | +3.2 pp |
| Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim | 0.96 | 0.91 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.14 | 1.97 | +0.17 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1. FC Heidenheim win15.4%6.50
- Draw20.7%4.83
- Borussia Dortmund win63.9%1.56
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw36.1%2.77
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or Borussia Dortmund79.3%1.26
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw84.6%1.18
- Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim19.4%5.15
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund80.6%1.24
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.582.1%1.22
- Over 2.560.0%1.67
- Over 3.537.7%2.65
- Over 4.520.3%4.93
- Under 1.517.9%5.59
- Under 2.540.0%2.50
- Under 3.562.3%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes55.1%1.82
- No44.9%2.23
- Yes and over 2.545.3%2.21
- 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes8.6%11.58
- Draw and yes15.7%6.35
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes30.7%3.26
Team goals
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.561.8%1.62
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.525.1%3.99
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.57.4%13.59
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.588.3%1.13
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.563.2%1.58
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.536.2%2.76
- 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet11.7%8.54
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet38.2%2.62
- 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil6.8%14.81
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil33.2%3.01
Handicap
- 1. FC Heidenheim −1.55.3%18.86
- 1. FC Heidenheim −2.51.4%72.58
- Borussia Dortmund +1.594.7%1.06
- Borussia Dortmund +2.598.6%1.01
- Borussia Dortmund −1.540.9%2.45
- 1. FC Heidenheim +1.559.1%1.69
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result39.9%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right68.4%
BTTS called right63.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.4% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.6% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 66.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 1 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3117 | 0.5055 |
| Avg chance given to result | 54.4% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 1 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.