1. FC Heidenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 5 pts · 10 played
LDLDL
0–3Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
12th · 9 pts · 10 played
DLLWW
1. FC Heidenheim35.3%fair odds 2.84
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Borussia Mönchengladbach37.9%fair odds 2.64
Expected goals1.35 – 1.40total 2.75
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| 1. FC Heidenheim ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are 1. FC Heidenheim goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.86
- 1–28.5%11.79
- 0–18.3%11.99
- 2–18.1%12.30
- 1–08.0%12.55
- 0–07.0%14.21
- 0–26.3%15.86
- 2–05.8%17.27
- 2–25.7%17.53
- 1–34.0%25.20
Winning margin
5.7%
1. FC Heidenheim by 3+
fair 17.41
10.4%
1. FC Heidenheim by 2
fair 9.60
19.1%
1. FC Heidenheim by 1
fair 5.24
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
20.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 5.01
11.3%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 8.82
6.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 15.08
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
1. FC Heidenheim goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
25%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim win | 35.3% | 35.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 37.9% | 37.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 50.2% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 55.1% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.35 | 1.32 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.40 | 1.36 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- 1. FC Heidenheim win35.3%2.84
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win37.9%2.64
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw62.1%1.61
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or Borussia Mönchengladbach73.2%1.37
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw64.7%1.54
- Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim48.2%2.08
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach51.8%1.93
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.6%1.30
- Over 2.551.8%1.93
- Over 3.529.7%3.37
- Over 4.514.4%6.92
- Under 1.523.4%4.28
- Under 2.548.2%2.08
- Under 3.570.3%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.29
- Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
- 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes17.7%5.64
- Draw and yes19.8%5.06
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes18.9%5.29
Team goals
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.574.0%1.35
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.538.9%2.57
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.515.3%6.52
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.575.4%1.33
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.540.9%2.44
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.516.7%5.97
- 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet24.6%4.07
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet26.0%3.84
- 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil17.5%5.70
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil19.0%5.26
Handicap
- 1. FC Heidenheim −1.516.2%6.19
- 1. FC Heidenheim −2.55.7%17.41
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.583.8%1.19
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.594.3%1.06
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.518.0%5.57
- 1. FC Heidenheim +1.582.0%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored91
Favourite won57.1%
Avg chance given to result44.0%
1X2 Brier0.539
Over 2.5 called right62.6%
BTTS called right58.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 28 | 45.1% | 39.3% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 54.4% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.5% | 84.2% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.2% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 73 of 91 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5141 | 0.5264 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.2% | 44.1% |
| Favourite won | 60.3% | 61.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 73 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗FSV Mainz 05 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim45·26·30
- ✓Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FSV Mainz 0554·24·23
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 3–2 FC Augsburg62·21·17
- ✓SC Freiburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli68·19·13
- ✓Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 1.FC Köln43·26·31
- ✗Union Berlin 2–2 Bayern München9·16·75
- ✗Hamburger SV 1–1 Borussia Dortmund15·20·65
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 6–0 1. FC Heidenheim79·14·7
- ✗1899 Hoffenheim 3–1 RB Leipzig30·25·44
- ✓Werder Bremen 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg53·24·23
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 91 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.