1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 5 pts · 10 played
LDLDL
0–3Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
12th · 9 pts · 10 played
DLLWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Borussia Mönchengladbach were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 28). 1. FC Heidenheim had 14 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 13.9 and had to travel 385 km.
Away travel385 kmRest days14 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach38%
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach38%
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach39%
1. FC Heidenheim28%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach45%
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 51
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimBorussia Mönchengladbach
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
48
AttackIn forecast
34
39
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimBorussia Mönchengladbach
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
60%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
11.70
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.44
36%
On target shareContext
42%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
62%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.38
15.90
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.70
BlocksContext
4.10
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
63%
Save rateContext
60%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
333
PassesContext
416
257
Accurate passesContext
349
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.80
FoulsContext
11.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
60%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
11.70
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.44
36%
On target shareContext
42%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
62%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.38
15.90
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.70
BlocksContext
4.10
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
63%
Save rateContext
60%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
333
PassesContext
416
257
Accurate passesContext
349
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.80
FoulsContext
11.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km693 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel385 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 385 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 693 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
4T. Siersleben
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
30N. Dorsch
17M. Honsak
21A. Beck
3J. Schöppner
22A. Ibrahimović
18M. Pieringer
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
20L. Netz
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
29J. Scally
10F. Neuhaus
6Y. Engelhardt
17J. Castrop
27R. Reitz
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
1.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.80
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–6 A | D 1–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | L 4–6 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 2–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 1 Mar 20251. FC Heidenheim0–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 19 Oct 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach3–21. FC Heidenheim
- 16 Mar 20241. FC Heidenheim1–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 28 Oct 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.45 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.40 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.45 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.40 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 4.12
Red cards0.16league 0.21
Cards 5+49%league 43%
Fouls22.1league 22.2
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins39%league 45%
1. FC Heidenheim5 with this referee
Record0-0-5
Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Aug 25A · RB Leipzig0–25
- L19 Apr 25H · Bayern München0–43
- L1 Feb 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–21
- L2 Nov 24A · Holstein Kiel0–15
- L9 Mar 24A · FC Augsburg0–13
Borussia Mönchengladbach2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 May 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim4–40
- W2 Oct 21A · VfL Wolfsburg3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 8 · conceded 23
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 8 · conceded 23
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
