1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 4 pts · 8 played
LWLDL
1–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
6th · 13 pts · 8 played
LWLDW
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 28). 1. FC Heidenheim had 7 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 7 and had to travel 192 km.
Away travel192 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
1. FC Heidenheim22%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt55%
1. FC Heidenheim22%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
1. FC Heidenheim22%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt55%
1. FC Heidenheim16%
Draw21%
Eintracht Frankfurt62%
1. FC Heidenheim22%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 60
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimEintracht Frankfurt
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
48
AttackIn forecast
54
39
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimEintracht Frankfurt
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.63
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+1.03
63%
Scored inContext
88%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
11.75
ShotsContext
12.88
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
39%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
65%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
20%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.60
14.88
Shots allowedContext
12.13
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.00
BlocksContext
2.00
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
68%
Save rateContext
56%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
346
PassesContext
492
267
Accurate passesContext
411
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.63
FoulsContext
9.38
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
10.75
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+1.19
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.20
ShotsContext
10.60
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
36%
On target shareContext
41%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
64%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
23%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.33
14.00
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
2.89
BlocksContext
2.00
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
64%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
371
PassesContext
470
294
Accurate passesContext
390
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.30
FoulsContext
8.60
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km226 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel192 km487 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 192 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 226 km | 487 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
4T. Siersleben
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
17M. Honsak
3J. Schöppner
16J. Niehues
22A. Ibrahimović
11B. Zivzivadze
9S. Schimmer
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
13R. Kristensen
21N. Brown
15E. Skhiri
16H. Larsson
20R. Doan
42C. Uzun
7A. Knauff
17S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 2–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 1. FC Heidenheim wins0 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game0.25 – 2.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 13 Apr 2025Eintracht Frankfurt3–01. FC Heidenheim
- 1 Dec 20241. FC Heidenheim0–4Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2 Mar 20241. FC Heidenheim1–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 8 Oct 2023Eintracht Frankfurt2–01. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 2.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 4.88 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 2.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 4.88 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 88% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 7.00 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.26 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.40 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.50 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 4.23
Red cards0.12league 0.22
Cards 5+47%league 44%
Fouls23.4league 22.6
Penalties0.32league 0.40
Home wins35%league 42%
1. FC Heidenheim4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 3
- L15 Dec 24H · VfB Stuttgart1–34
- D27 Oct 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim0–01
- L2 Dec 23A · RB Leipzig1–22
- L24 Sep 23A · Bayer Leverkusen1–41
Eintracht Frankfurt7 with this referee
Record0-3-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D11 May 25H · FC St. Pauli2–22
- D8 Feb 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–13
- L5 May 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–50
- L17 Dec 23A · Bayer Leverkusen0–31
- L19 Mar 23A · Union Berlin0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim8 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt8 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
7
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 24 · conceded 28
2
6
0-15
4
1
16-30
9
7
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
