1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 26 pts · 33 played
WLWDW
0–2Full time
FSV Mainz 05
10th · 37 pts · 33 played
LDLWL
Our take
1. FC Heidenheim were slight favourites.
FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1. FC Heidenheim. 1. FC Heidenheim had 5.9 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 5.8 and had to travel 199 km.
Away travel199 kmRest days5.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
1. FC Heidenheim44%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0531%
1. FC Heidenheim32%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0541%
1. FC Heidenheim44%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0531%
1. FC Heidenheim36%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0539%
1. FC Heidenheim43%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0531%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 66
Team strength
1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
48
AttackIn forecast
68
39
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
2.12
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
67%
Scored inContext
70%
3%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
10.97
ShotsContext
11.42
3.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
34%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.94
68%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.62
14.85
Shots allowedContext
13.76
5.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.94
4.00
BlocksContext
3.84
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
61%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
348
PassesContext
361
269
Accurate passesContext
274
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.48
FoulsContext
10.36
9.97
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.42
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.60
ShotsContext
13.00
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
35%
On target shareContext
37%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
76%
Box shareContext
71%
20%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.56
BlocksContext
2.40
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
63%
Save rateContext
61%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
336
PassesContext
362
259
Accurate passesContext
288
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.85
8.20
FoulsContext
10.80
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km922 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel199 km828 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1. FC Heidenheim |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 May | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 199 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 922 km | 828 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 105 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
40F. Feller(G)
26Hennes Behrens
19J. Föhrenbach
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
22A. Ibrahimović
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
8E. Dinkçi
18M. Pieringer
11B. Zivzivadze
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
48K. Potulski
4S. Posch
31D. Kohr
2P. Mwene
10N. Amiri
6K. Sano
8P. Nebel
30S. Widmer
23S. Becker
20P. Tietz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1. FC Heidenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FSV Mainz 05+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
1. FC Heidenheim · Home
1.06points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-7
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 2.19
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
1.25points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-6
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | 1. FC Heidenheim | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Bayern München | D 3–3 AL 0–4 H | L 3–4 HD 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 HL 0–6 A | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 26 of 96 · 0.81 per game | 34 of 96 · 1.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws2 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 13 Jan 2026FSV Mainz 052–11. FC Heidenheim
- 16 Feb 20251. FC Heidenheim0–2FSV Mainz 05
- 28 Sep 2024FSV Mainz 050–21. FC Heidenheim
- 5 May 20241. FC Heidenheim1–1FSV Mainz 05
- 16 Dec 2023FSV Mainz 050–11. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.12 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 3.36 | 2.88 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 55% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 3% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 30% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.10 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.52 | 5.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 9.62 | 9.64 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 20/31 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 13/31 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 11/31 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.45 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 4.15 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 16/33 | 61% 20/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 11/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.70 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.69
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+35%league 37%
Fouls22.7league 20.2
Penalties0.30league 0.35
Home wins44%league 44%
1. FC Heidenheim4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L7 Mar 26H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–40
- W11 Jan 25H · Union Berlin2–00
- L28 Oct 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–23
- L26 Aug 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–31
FSV Mainz 054 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Oct 25A · Hamburger SV0–43
- W24 Feb 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–02
- W15 Oct 22A · Werder Bremen2–02
- W22 Oct 21H · FC Augsburg4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
1. FC Heidenheim33 games · scored 41 · conceded 70
4
4
0-15
6
11
16-30
6
16
31-45
7
13
46-60
7
11
61-75
11
15
76-90
FSV Mainz 0533 games · scored 42 · conceded 53
7
10
0-15
5
6
16-30
9
7
31-45
5
7
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
20
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
