1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg – 23 Aug 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 23 · 14:30 Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz

1. FC Heidenheim

1–3Full time

VfL Wolfsburg

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

VfL Wolfsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 32). 1. FC Heidenheim had ? days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg ? and had to travel 419 km.

Away travel419 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

1. FC Heidenheim35%

Draw27%

VfL Wolfsburg39%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.43

1. FC Heidenheim34%

Draw27%

VfL Wolfsburg39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.39

1. FC Heidenheim34%

Draw26%

VfL Wolfsburg39%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.46

1. FC Heidenheim28%

Draw26%

VfL Wolfsburg46%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.61

1. FC Heidenheim35%

Draw27%

VfL Wolfsburg38%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.36

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heidenheim an der Brenz)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 44

Team strength

1. FC Heidenheim

VfL Wolfsburg

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

48 AttackIn forecast 50

39 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1. FC Heidenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfL Wolfsburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

1. FC Heidenheim

VfL Wolfsburg

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

60% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.90 ShotsContext 13.10

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

30% On target shareContext 26%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

60% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 6%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

13.20 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.00 BlocksContext 3.60

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

63% Save rateContext 67%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

408 PassesContext 427

327 Accurate passesContext 345

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.40 FoulsContext 8.90

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1. FC Heidenheim

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfL Wolfsburg

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel419 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1. FC Heidenheim	VfL Wolfsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	419 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1. FC Heidenheim Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

41D. Ramaj(G)

4T. Siersleben 5B. Gimber 6P. Mainka

19J. Föhrenbach 30N. Dorsch 3J. Schöppner 2M. Busch

8Léo Scienza 22A. Ibrahimović

11B. Zivzivadze

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

VfL Wolfsburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. Grabara(G)

25A. Zehnter 4K. Koulierakis 15M. Jenz 2K. Fischer

5Vinicius Souza 27M. Arnold

39P. Wimmer 10L. Majer 7A. Skov Olsen

17D. Pejčinović

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1. FC Heidenheim Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

VfL Wolfsburg Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

1. FC Heidenheim+0.5 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
VfL Wolfsburg-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

1. FC Heidenheim · Home No home games yet this season.

VfL Wolfsburg · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 1. FC Heidenheim wins1 draws2 VfL Wolfsburg wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.50 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

29 Mar 2025VfL Wolfsburg0–11. FC Heidenheim
10 Nov 20241. FC Heidenheim1–3VfL Wolfsburg
20 Jan 20241. FC Heidenheim1–1VfL Wolfsburg
19 Aug 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–01. FC Heidenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1. FC Heidenheim	VfL Wolfsburg	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.78
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	1. FC Heidenheim	VfL Wolfsburg	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.78
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1. FC Heidenheim	VfL Wolfsburg	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	5.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	1. FC Heidenheim	VfL Wolfsburg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	5.20
Corners conceded	4.00	4.80
Match total	8.11	10.00	10.00
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	1.40	1.30
Match total	3.30	2.80	5.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.16league 5.00

Red cards0.23league 0.00

Cards 5+48%league 100%

Fouls24.0league 26.0

Penalties0.39league 0.00

Home wins27%league 100%

1. FC Heidenheim2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L21 Sep 24H · SC Freiburg0–31
W20 Dec 23H · SC Freiburg3–23

VfL Wolfsburg4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

D2 Feb 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
L2 Mar 24H · VfB Stuttgart2–33
D10 Feb 23A · FC Schalke 040–04
W9 Apr 22H · Arminia Bielefeld4–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.