Serie A Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 2 2025 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
AC Milan
1–0 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 3.32 – 2.04
AS Roma
  • S. Pavlović 39’
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Pavlović goal decides it for AC Milan

AC Milan entered as narrow favourites and won 1–0 through a Pavlović goal. AC Milan finished with the higher xG (3.32 vs 2.04). On the chances created, AS Roma deserved more: 0.8 expected points against the 0 points they took.

AC Milan ✓40%
Draw28%
AS Roma32%

Model vs reality

AC Milan goals
1
Model 1.36 · xG 3.32
AS Roma goals
0
Model 1.19 · xG 2.04
Total goals
1
Model 2.55 · xG 5.36
Score 1–0
10%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 47%
Both scored
No
Model 52%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchL. ModrićAC Milan
8.0
  • RefereeMarco Guida
  • VenueStadio Giuseppe Meazza
  • Table before kick-offAC Milan 5th · AS Roma 3rd

Timeline

  1. N. El AynaouiYellow card · Roughing
    34’
  2. S. Pavlović 1–0Assist Rafael Leão
    39’
  3. Half time · 1–0
  4. ⇄ L. BaileyFor M. Soulé
    51’
  5. ⇄ L. PellegriniFor N. El Aynaoui
    52’
  6. WesleyYellow card · Tripping
    74’
  7. M. ÇelikYellow card · Roughing
    75’
  8. ⇄ A. DovbykFor M. Çelik
    77’
  9. Y. FofanaYellow card · Tripping
    78’
  10. ✕ P. DybalaMissed penalty
    82’
  11. HermosoYellow card · Roughing
    83’
  12. ⇄ R. Loftus-CheekFor C. Nkunku
    84’
  13. ⇄ K. TsimikasFor Hermoso
    84’
  14. ⇄ T. BaldanziFor P. Dybala
    84’
  15. ⇄ Z. AthekameFor A. Saelemaekers
    88’
  16. ⇄ O. TomoriFor Rafael Leão
    90+4’
  17. G. ManciniYellow card · Unsportsmanlike conduct
    90+5’
  18. Full time · 1–0

Team stats

AC Milan17 shots · 13 in box, 4 outside
AS Roma20 shots · 14 in box, 6 outside
AC MilanAS Roma
37% Possession 63%
3.32 Expected goals (xG) 2.04
2.04 Expected points (xPts) 0.80
17 Shots 20
8 Shots on target 6
7 Shots off target 10
2 Blocked shots 4
13 Shots inside the box 14
4 Shots outside the box 6
311 Passes 520
83% Pass accuracy 90%
7 Corners 8
7 Goalkeeper saves 6
12 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 1
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
7.11 Team rating 6.93

Line-ups

AC Milan 3-5-2

167.6 M. Maignan(G)
317.9 S. Pavlović 466.9 M. Gabbia 57.0 K. De Winter
336.7 D. Bartesaghi 47.0 S. Ricci 148.0★ L. Modrić 195.6 Y. Fofana 567.6 A. Saelemaekers ↓88’
107.5 Rafael Leão A↓90’ 186.5 C. Nkunku ↓84’
  • 16M. Maignan (G)7.6
  • 31S. Pavlović7.9
  • 46M. Gabbia6.9
  • 5K. De Winter7.0
  • 33D. Bartesaghi6.7
  • 4S. Ricci7.0
  • 14L. Modrić ★8.0
  • 19Y. Fofana5.6
  • 56A. Saelemaekers↓88’7.6
  • 10Rafael LeãoA↓90’7.5
  • 18C. Nkunku↓84’6.5

Substitutes used

  • 24Z. Athekame↑88’6.3
  • 23O. Tomori↑90’
  • 8R. Loftus-Cheek↑84’6.3

Unused: M. Pittarella, P. Terracciano, D. Odogu, P. Estupiñán, A. Jashari

AS Roma 3-5-2

998.0 M. Svilar(G)
227.0 Hermoso ↓84’ 56.9 O. Ndicka 237.6 G. Mancini
436.7 Wesley 86.6 N. El Aynaoui ↓52’ 47.0 B. Cristante 176.9 K. Koné 196.9 M. Çelik ↓77’
215.6 P. Dybala ↓84’ 186.9 M. Soulé ↓51’
  • 99M. Svilar (G)8.0
  • 22Hermoso↓84’7.0
  • 5O. Ndicka6.9
  • 23G. Mancini7.6
  • 43Wesley6.7
  • 8N. El Aynaoui↓52’6.6
  • 4B. Cristante7.0
  • 17K. Koné6.9
  • 19M. Çelik↓77’6.9
  • 21P. Dybala↓84’5.6
  • 18M. Soulé↓51’6.9

Substitutes used

  • 31L. Bailey↑51’6.7
  • 7L. Pellegrini↑52’7.3
  • 12K. Tsimikas↑84’6.5
  • 35T. Baldanzi↑84’6.3
  • 9A. Dovbyk↑77’6.3

Unused: D. Vásquez, P. Gollini, J. Ziółkowski, D. Rensch, D. Ghilardi, N. Pisilli, S. El Shaarawy

Player stats

Top rated
L. ModrićAC Milan8.0
2nd
M. SvilarAS Roma8.0
3rd
S. PavlovićAC Milan7.9

AC Milan

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Maignan G 90 0 0 7 sv 0 68% 47 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.6
S. Pavlović D 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 92% 36 1 0 0/2 1/1 7.9
M. Gabbia D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 90% 29 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.9
K. De Winter D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 35 0 1 1/1 1/0 7.0
D. Bartesaghi D 90 0 0 2 (1) 1 74% 27 2 0 0/1 2/0 6.7
S. Ricci M 90 0 0 3 (2) 0 88% 24 3 1 1/3 0/3 7.0
L. Modrić M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 88% 43 1 1 1/2 0/0 8.0
Y. Fofana M 90 0 0 2 (1) 2 81% 16 3 0 0/2 4/0 5.6
A. Saelemaekers F 88 0 0 0 (0) 1 85% 20 3 0 4/6 1/3 7.6
Rafael Leão F 90 0 1 3 (2) 1 79% 19 0 0 2/4 1/3 7.5
C. Nkunku F 84 0 0 2 (1) 2 100% 14 0 0 1/1 2/1 6.5
Z. Athekame D 2 0 0 0 (0) 0 0% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
O. Tomori D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
R. Loftus-Cheek M 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

AS Roma

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Svilar G 90 0 0 6 sv 0 65% 20 0 0 0/0 0/2 8.0
Hermoso D 84 0 0 1 (0) 0 90% 52 0 1 0/0 1/0 7.0
O. Ndicka D 90 0 0 3 (0) 0 93% 61 1 1 0/0 2/2 6.9
G. Mancini D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 89% 61 4 4 0/0 2/0 7.6
Wesley M 90 0 0 2 (2) 3 83% 40 3 2 1/2 2/1 6.7
N. El Aynaoui M 52 0 0 2 (1) 2 90% 30 3 0 1/1 2/0 6.6
B. Cristante M 90 0 0 2 (0) 3 93% 58 2 1 0/0 1/0 7.0
K. Koné M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 98% 50 2 0 0/1 1/0 6.9
M. Çelik D 77 0 0 0 (0) 1 92% 48 3 0 0/1 2/1 6.9
P. Dybala F 84 0 0 3 (1) 2 81% 27 0 1 0/0 0/1 5.6
M. Soulé F 51 0 0 2 (1) 2 100% 19 0 0 1/2 0/1 6.9
L. Bailey M 39 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 14 2 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
L. Pellegrini M 38 0 0 1 (1) 1 89% 27 0 0 0/0 0/2 7.3
K. Tsimikas D 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 4 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.5
T. Baldanzi M 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 8 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.3
A. Dovbyk F 13 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.