AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on AC Milan. AC Milan had 5 days of rest, AS Roma 4.1 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days5 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
AC Milan40%
Draw28%
AS Roma32%
AC Milan42%
Draw27%
AS Roma31%
AC Milan41%
Draw28%
AS Roma31%
AC Milan33%
Draw28%
AS Roma39%
AC Milan41%
Draw27%
AS Roma32%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 69
Team strength
AC Milan
AS Roma
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
72
AttackIn forecast
72
69
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanAS Roma
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.44
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
89%
Scored inContext
78%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
56%
13.11
ShotsContext
13.67
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
32%
On target shareContext
37%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
67%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.22
Shots allowedContext
9.89
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
3.38
BlocksContext
1.86
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
78%
Save rateContext
85%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
484
PassesContext
486
426
Accurate passesContext
406
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.56
FoulsContext
14.44
11.56
Fouls sufferedContext
16.33
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.90
ShotsContext
14.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
65%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
8.90
Shots allowedContext
9.30
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.22
BlocksContext
1.89
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
80%
Save rateContext
75%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
492
PassesContext
490
436
Accurate passesContext
410
89%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.40
FoulsContext
15.60
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
16.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel479 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Oct | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 694 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
5K. De Winter
33D. Bartesaghi
4S. Ricci
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
18C. Nkunku
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
8N. El Aynaoui
4B. Cristante
17K. Koné
19M. Çelik
21P. Dybala
18M. Soulé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- AS Roma+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.20
AS Roma · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 AC Milan wins3 draws1 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.88 – 1.38
Over 2.575%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 May 2025AS Roma3–1AC Milan
- 29 Dec 2024AC Milan1–1AS Roma
- 14 Jan 2024AC Milan3–1AS Roma
- 1 Sep 2023AS Roma1–2AC Milan
- 29 Apr 2023AS Roma1–1AC Milan
- 8 Jan 2023AC Milan2–2AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 0.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.56 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 22% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 22% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 56% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| AC Milan | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.90 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 30% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 8.89 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 4.12 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| AC Milan | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 9.50 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.90 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.91
Red cards0.13league 0.13
Cards 5+39%league 39%
Fouls24.0league 26.0
Penalties0.36league 0.29
Home wins42%league 36%
AC Milan7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D5 Oct 25A · Juventus0–02
- D15 Dec 24H · Genoa0–00
- W14 Jan 24H · AS Roma3–12
- W24 Apr 22A · Lazio2–14
- W5 Feb 22A · Inter2–15
AS Roma11 with this referee
Record1-3-7
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against4 · 1
- L2 Dec 24H · Atalanta0–22
- D1 Sep 24A · Juventus0–02
- L12 May 24A · Atalanta1–21
- W6 Apr 24H · Lazio1–05
- L10 Feb 24H · Inter2–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan9 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
AS Roma9 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
