AC Milan vs Benfica – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 20:00 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan

0–2Full time

Benfica

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were slight favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. AC Milan had 4.1 days of rest, Benfica 3.1 and had to travel 1,683 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,683 kmRest days4.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 3

AC Milan27%

Draw23%

Benfica51%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.87

AC Milan31%

Draw26%

Benfica43%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

AC Milan26%

Draw23%

Benfica51%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.87

AC Milan20%

Draw21%

Benfica59%

Expected goals 1.15 – 2.10

AC Milan27%

Draw23%

Benfica50%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.77

Over 2.5 61% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

24°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 62%

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 112

Team strength

AC Milan

Benfica

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

72 AttackIn forecast 81

69 DefenceIn forecast 81

71 Form indexContext 89

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Benfica

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 2.77

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.53

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.63

80% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.40 ShotsContext 20.17

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.83

33% On target shareContext 39%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 14.83

55% Box shareContext 74%

11% ConversionContext 17%

1.38 OffsidesContext 2.40

11.90 Shots allowedContext 5.50

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

3.78 BlocksContext 2.17

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.20

76% Save rateContext 60%

52% PossessionIn forecast 65%

472 PassesContext 584

411 Accurate passesContext 516

87% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.27

10.80 FoulsContext 11.89

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.67

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan WWDD

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,208 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 71 · 8 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

D12 SepA · Lazio2–21.3 xPts
D6 SepA · Juventus1–11.0 xPts
W28 AugH · Venezia2–02.4 xPts
W23 AugA · Torino2–11.5 xPts

Benfica WWWWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,683 km2,552 km in 14d

Schedule load48%High

Form 89 · 15 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +2.8 vs expected

W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts
W9 SepA · Moreirense4–02.3 xPts
W5 SepA · Maritimo3–02.4 xPts
W31 AugH · Estoril2–12.7 xPts
W17 AugA · Casa Pia7–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 48
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Sep	3.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,683 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,208 km	2,552 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	2 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	4	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 42F. Terracciano

33D. Bartesaghi 80Y. Musah 30A. Jashari 21S. Chukwueze

70A. Cissè 20O. Hutchinson

9Gonçalo Ramos

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

34S. El Karouani 44Tomás Araújo 3A. Circati 58Daniel Banjaqui

36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes

13J. Kamiński 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

22J. Durán

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan+0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home No home games yet this season.

Benfica · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.16
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	61%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	61%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	AC Milan	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	3.40
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	2.50	4.20	3.16
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	90%	61%
Over 3.5	20%	70%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	AC Milan	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	2.80	6.71
Corners conceded	3.60	2.14
Match total	6.40	8.85	13.50
Over 8.5	10% 1/10	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.30
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.40	3.80	2.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 112 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 2.00

Red cards0.09league 0.00

Cards 5+37%league 0%

Fouls20.2league 25.0

Penalties0.22league 0.00

Home wins38%league 50%

AC Milan

No previous matches with this referee.

Benfica

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.