AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 56). AC Milan had 16 days of rest, Bologna 15.1 and had to travel 201 km.
Away travel201 kmRest days16 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
AC Milan47%
Draw27%
Bologna26%
AC Milan47%
Draw26%
Bologna26%
AC Milan47%
Draw27%
Bologna26%
AC Milan39%
Draw28%
Bologna32%
AC Milan47%
Draw26%
Bologna26%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 37
Team strength
AC Milan
Bologna
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
72
AttackIn forecast
35
69
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanBologna
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
0.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.00
ShotsContext
12.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
31%
On target shareContext
16%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
71%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
4%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
5.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
—
BlocksContext
3.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
60%
Save rateContext
80%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
541
PassesContext
309
481
Accurate passesContext
232
89%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.78
8.50
FoulsContext
12.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
12.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
31%
On target shareContext
26%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
64%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.40
Shots allowedContext
8.20
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
2.56
BlocksContext
2.71
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
79%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
479
PassesContext
404
422
Accurate passesContext
333
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.90
FoulsContext
12.00
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
17.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel201 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Aug | 15.1Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 201 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
2P. Estupiñán
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
12A. Rabiot
8R. Loftus-Cheek
7S. Giménez
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
22C. Lykogiannis
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
20N. Zortea
8R. Freuler
19L. Ferguson
80G. Fabbian
28N. Cambiaghi
9S. Castro
7R. Orsolini
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bologna+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Bologna · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 AC Milan wins3 draws1 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.88 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 9 May 2025AC Milan3–1Bologna
- 27 Feb 2025Bologna2–1AC Milan
- 27 Jan 2024AC Milan2–2Bologna
- 21 Aug 2023Bologna0–2AC Milan
- 15 Apr 2023Bologna1–1AC Milan
- 27 Aug 2022AC Milan2–0Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| AC Milan | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.50 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| AC Milan | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.90 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.10 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.89league 3.52
Red cards0.38league 0.07
Cards 5+65%league 33%
Fouls23.3league 25.6
Penalties0.24league 0.15
Home wins46%league 44%
AC Milan1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Apr 23H · Empoli0–01
Bologna2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D28 May 23H · Napoli2–21
- D21 Aug 22H · Verona1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Bologna2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
7
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
