Serie A Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 8 2026 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
AC Milan
1–0 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 0.77 – 1.08
Inter
  • P. Estupiñán 35’
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Estupiñán goal decides it for AC Milan

AC Milan won 1–0 through a Estupiñán goal. AC Milan won despite the lower xG; Inter created the better chances (1.08 vs 0.77). On the chances created, Inter deserved more: 1.6 expected points against the 0 points they took.

AC Milan ✓34%
Draw29%
Inter37%

Model vs reality

AC Milan goals
1
Model 1.18 · xG 0.77
Inter goals
0
Model 1.25 · xG 1.08
Total goals
1
Model 2.43 · xG 1.85
Score 1–0
10%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 44%
Both scored
No
Model 50%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchP. EstupiñánAC Milan · 1 goal
7.7
  • RefereeDaniele Doveri
  • VenueStadio Giuseppe Meazza
  • Table before kick-offAC Milan 2nd · Inter 1st

Timeline

  1. P. Estupiñán 1–0Assist Y. Fofana
    35’
  2. Half time · 1–0
  3. ⇄ P. SučićFor H. Mkhitaryan
    59’
  4. ⇄ D. DumfriesFor L. de Lima
    59’
  5. A. BastoniYellow card · Tripping
    65’
  6. ⇄ Carlos AugustoFor A. Bastoni
    68’
  7. ⇄ D. FrattesiFor N. Barella
    68’
  8. D. DumfriesYellow card · Holding
    69’
  9. ⇄ N. FüllkrugFor Rafael Leão
    73’
  10. ⇄ S. RicciFor Y. Fofana
    73’
  11. ⇄ A. DioufFor Y. Bisseck
    80’
  12. A. RabiotYellow card
    80’
  13. ⇄ C. NkunkuFor C. Pulišić
    84’
  14. L. ModrićYellow card · Tripping
    89’
  15. Full time · 1–0

Team stats

AC Milan9 shots · 6 in box, 3 outside
Inter10 shots · 6 in box, 4 outside
AC MilanInter
38% Possession 62%
0.77 Expected goals (xG) 1.08
1.09 Expected points (xPts) 1.59
9 Shots 10
2 Shots on target 2
6 Shots off target 5
1 Blocked shots 3
6 Shots inside the box 6
3 Shots outside the box 4
380 Passes 617
86% Pass accuracy 91%
1 Corners 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
7.09 Team rating 6.55

Line-ups

AC Milan 3-5-2

167.6 M. Maignan(G)
317.2 S. Pavlović 57.3 K. De Winter 236.9 O. Tomori
27.7★ P. Estupiñán 126.9 A. Rabiot 147.5 L. Modrić 196.9 Y. Fofana A↓73’ 566.6 A. Saelemaekers
117.3 C. Pulišić ↓84’ 106.3 Rafael Leão ↓73’
  • 16M. Maignan (G)7.6
  • 31S. Pavlović7.2
  • 5K. De Winter7.3
  • 23O. Tomori6.9
  • 2P. Estupiñán ★7.7
  • 12A. Rabiot6.9
  • 14L. Modrić7.5
  • 19Y. FofanaA↓73’6.9
  • 56A. Saelemaekers6.6
  • 11C. Pulišić↓84’7.3
  • 10Rafael Leão↓73’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 4S. Ricci↑73’6.3
  • 9N. Füllkrug↑73’6.3
  • 18C. Nkunku↑84’6.3

Unused: P. Terracciano, L. Torriani, D. Bartesaghi, Z. Athekame, D. Odogu, A. Jashari

Inter 3-5-2

16.3 Y. Sommer(G)
956.3 A. Bastoni ↓68’ 257.2 M. Akanji 316.3 Y. Bisseck ↓80’
326.2 F. Dimarco 226.7 H. Mkhitaryan ↓59’ 76.6 P. Zieliński 236.9 N. Barella ↓68’ 116.7 L. de Lima ↓59’
946.7 F. Esposito 146.0 A. Bonny
  • 1Y. Sommer (G)6.3
  • 95A. Bastoni↓68’6.3
  • 25M. Akanji7.2
  • 31Y. Bisseck↓80’6.3
  • 32F. Dimarco6.2
  • 22H. Mkhitaryan↓59’6.7
  • 7P. Zieliński6.6
  • 23N. Barella↓68’6.9
  • 11L. de Lima↓59’6.7
  • 94F. Esposito6.7
  • 14A. Bonny6.0

Substitutes used

  • 2D. Dumfries↑59’6.7
  • 8P. Sučić↑59’7.0
  • 30Carlos Augusto↑68’6.9
  • 16D. Frattesi↑68’6.5
  • 17A. Diouf↑80’6.3

Unused: Josep Martínez, R. Di Gennaro, S. de Vrij, F. Acerbi, H. Çalhanoğlu, M. Darmian, M. Lavelli, L. Martínez

Player stats

Top rated
P. EstupiñánAC Milan7.7
2nd
M. MaignanAC Milan7.6
3rd
L. ModrićAC Milan7.5

AC Milan

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Maignan G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 93% 27 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.6
S. Pavlović D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 41 1 0 2/2 0/1 7.2
K. De Winter D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 54 2 2 0/0 0/0 7.3
O. Tomori D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 40 2 1 0/0 2/2 6.9
P. Estupiñán D 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 86% 28 2 1 0/1 2/1 7.7
A. Rabiot M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 34 1 1 0/0 1/3 6.9
L. Modrić M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 89% 64 1 1 0/0 1/1 7.5
Y. Fofana M 73 0 1 2 (1) 2 77% 22 1 0 1/3 0/0 6.9
A. Saelemaekers F 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 85% 26 2 1 0/2 1/2 6.6
C. Pulišić M 84 0 0 1 (0) 3 81% 21 1 0 3/3 0/0 7.3
Rafael Leão F 73 0 0 2 (0) 0 83% 18 0 0 1/2 0/1 6.3
S. Ricci M 17 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.3
N. Füllkrug F 17 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
C. Nkunku F 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Inter

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Y. Sommer G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 89% 27 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
A. Bastoni D 68 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 73 3 1 0/0 4/0 6.3
M. Akanji D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 79 1 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
Y. Bisseck D 80 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 56 0 2 1/2 0/0 6.3
F. Dimarco D 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 88% 52 0 2 0/1 2/1 6.2
H. Mkhitaryan M 59 0 0 1 (1) 1 91% 45 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
P. Zieliński M 90 0 0 1 (1) 3 94% 88 1 1 0/1 2/1 6.6
N. Barella M 68 0 0 1 (0) 1 93% 56 1 0 0/1 0/1 6.9
L. de Lima F 59 0 0 0 (0) 0 84% 37 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
F. Esposito F 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 69% 13 1 0 0/1 1/2 6.7
A. Bonny F 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 57% 14 2 0 0/0 2/0 6.0
D. Dumfries D 31 0 0 0 (0) 1 71% 7 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.7
P. Sučić M 31 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 36 0 1 1/1 0/1 7.0
Carlos Augusto D 22 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 26 1 0 0/0 0/1 6.9
D. Frattesi M 22 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.5
A. Diouf M 10 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 8 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.