AC Milan vs Inter – 8 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 8 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 2nd · 57 pts · 27 played WWDLW

1–0Full time

Inter 1st · 67 pts · 27 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 73). Absences weigh more on Inter. AC Milan had 7.3 days of rest, Inter 8 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7.3 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

AC Milan34%

Draw29%

Inter37%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.25

AC Milan34%

Draw27%

Inter39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40

AC Milan33%

Draw28%

Inter38%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.29

AC Milan28%

Draw28%

Inter44%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.40

AC Milan35%

Draw28%

Inter37%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.30

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 79

Team strength

AC Milan

Inter

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

72 AttackIn forecast 91

69 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Inter

1.59 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.37

0.74 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.78

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.72

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

93% Scored inContext 96%

44% Clean sheetsContext 56%

13.30 ShotsContext 18.19

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

35% On target shareContext 35%

9.48 Shots in the boxContext 12.81

69% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.12 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.78 Shots allowedContext 8.04

3.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.17

3.40 BlocksContext 2.77

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.48

83% Save rateContext 79%

52% PossessionIn forecast 61%

485 PassesContext 534

427 Accurate passesContext 467

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.02 Team ratingContext 7.07

9.70 FoulsContext 13.37

11.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.52 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.86

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.10 ShotsContext 20.00

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.80

34% On target shareContext 34%

11.38 Shots in the boxContext 15.90

73% Box shareContext 79%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.56 OffsidesContext 1.89

11.40 Shots allowedContext 8.20

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.56 BlocksContext 2.63

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

84% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 62%

502 PassesContext 554

443 Accurate passesContext 487

88% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.07 Team ratingContext 7.04

10.30 FoulsContext 10.40

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan

Rest7.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km149 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Inter

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.3Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Mar	8Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	149 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 23O. Tomori

2P. Estupiñán 12A. Rabiot 14L. Modrić 19Y. Fofana 56A. Saelemaekers

11C. Pulišić 10Rafael Leão

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 22H. Mkhitaryan 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima

94F. Esposito 14A. Bonny

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Inter Scores -0.06 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan+0.8 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Inter-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 1.92points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-2
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 0.85

Inter · Away 2.54points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 11-0-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AC Milan	Inter
Cremonese	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	W 2–0 AW 4–1 H
Parma	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 A
Como	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A	W 4–0 H
Pisa	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	W 6–2 HW 2–0 A
Bologna	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
AS Roma	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Lecce	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Fiorentina	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 H
Genoa	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 HW 2–1 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
Verona	W 3–0 H	W 2–1 A
Sassuolo	D 2–2 H	W 5–0 AW 2–1 H
Torino	W 3–2 A	W 5–0 H
Lazio	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Atalanta	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Juventus	D 0–0 A	W 3–2 HL 3–4 A
Napoli	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Udinese	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H
Points	54 of 78 · 2.08 per game	67 of 78 · 2.58 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 AC Milan wins2 draws3 Inter wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.56 Over 2.556% Both scored78% Clean sheets11% · 11%

23 Nov 2025Inter0–1AC Milan
2 Feb 2025AC Milan1–1Inter
22 Sep 2024Inter1–2AC Milan
22 Apr 2024AC Milan1–2Inter
16 Sep 2023Inter5–1AC Milan
5 Feb 2023Inter1–0AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.59	2.37
Conceded per game	0.74	0.78
Match goals	2.33	3.15	2.43
Over 1.5	70%	81%
Over 2.5	44%	56%	44%
Over 3.5	19%	37%
Both teams scored	52%	41%	50%
Clean sheets	44%	56%
Failed to score	7%	4%
Games	27	27

	AC Milan	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.60
Conceded per game	0.70	0.60
Match goals	2.20	3.20	2.43
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	44%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	70%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	6.70
Corners conceded	4.46	2.67
Match total	9.29	9.37	8.78
Over 8.5	58% 14/24	63% 17/27
Over 9.5	42% 10/24	56% 15/27
Over 10.5	38% 9/24	44% 12/27
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.56
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	3.67	3.26	3.93
Over 3.5	52% 14/27	26% 7/27
Over 4.5	30% 8/27	19% 5/27

	AC Milan	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	6.60
Corners conceded	4.22	3.10
Match total	9.78	9.70	8.78
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.60
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	3.60	3.40	3.93
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 79 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.29league 3.76

Red cards0.20league 0.19

Cards 5+27%league 36%

Fouls24.8league 25.2

Penalties0.22league 0.31

Home wins23%league 39%

AC Milan12 with this referee

Record5-5-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 1

D28 Oct 25A · Atalanta1–13
W20 Sep 25A · Udinese3–00
W8 Mar 25A · Lecce3–21
W11 Feb 24H · Napoli1–01
D22 Dec 23A · Salernitana2–21

Inter14 with this referee

Record5-6-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.1 Pens for · against3 · 1

D11 Jan 26H · Napoli2–20
W14 Dec 25A · Genoa2–13
W2 Nov 25A · Verona2–11
D5 Apr 25A · Parma2–23
D1 Mar 25A · Napoli1–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.