Serie A Gameweek 13 Sat, Nov 29 2025 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
AC Milan
1–0 Full time · HT 0–0 xG 1.56 – 0.75
Lazio
  • Rafael Leão 51’
  • M. Allegri 90+7’
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Leão goal decides it for AC Milan

AC Milan entered as favourites and won 1–0 through a Leão goal. AC Milan played with ten men from the 90th minute after Allegri was sent off. AC Milan finished with the higher xG (1.56 vs 0.75). On the chances created, Lazio deserved more: 0.8 expected points against the 0 points they took.

AC Milan ✓50%
Draw27%
Lazio24%

Model vs reality

AC Milan goals
1
Model 1.54 · xG 1.56
Lazio goals
0
Model 0.99 · xG 0.75
Total goals
1
Model 2.53 · xG 2.31
Score 1–0
12%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 46%
Both scored
No
Model 50%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchO. TomoriAC Milan · 1 assist
8.0
  • RefereeGiuseppe Collu
  • VenueStadio Giuseppe Meazza
  • Table before kick-offAC Milan 2nd · Lazio 8th

Timeline

  1. O. TomoriYellow card · Roughing
    26’
  2. Half time · 0–0
  3. Rafael Leão 1–0Assist O. Tomori
    51’
  4. L. PellegriniYellow card · Unsportsmanlike conduct
    57’
  5. ⇄ O. Dele-BashiruFor M. Vecino
    62’
  6. ⇄ V. CastellanosFor B. Dia
    62’
  7. M. GabbiaYellow card · Roughing
    64’
  8. ⇄ R. Loftus-CheekFor Y. Fofana
    65’
  9. ⇄ PedroFor G. Isaksen
    70’
  10. A. RomagnoliYellow card · Tripping
    73’
  11. ⇄ S. RicciFor C. Nkunku
    82’
  12. ⇄ T. NoslinFor T. Bašić
    85’
  13. ⇄ Nuno TavaresFor L. Pellegrini
    85’
  14. S. RicciYellow card · Foul
    90’
  15. M. AllegriRed card
    90+7’
  16. M. ZaccagniYellow card · Roughing
    90+13’
  17. Full time · 1–0

Team stats

AC Milan16 shots · 11 in box, 5 outside
Lazio10 shots · 6 in box, 4 outside
AC MilanLazio
47% Possession 53%
1.56 Expected goals (xG) 0.75
1.95 Expected points (xPts) 0.79
16 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 4
5 Shots off target 4
7 Blocked shots 2
11 Shots inside the box 6
5 Shots outside the box 4
494 Passes 568
88% Pass accuracy 88%
1 Corners 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
10 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2
3 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0
7.15 Team rating 6.73

Line-ups

AC Milan 3-5-2

167.9 M. Maignan(G)
317.0 S. Pavlović 467.2 M. Gabbia 238.0★ O. Tomori A
337.3 D. Bartesaghi 127.0 A. Rabiot 146.9 L. Modrić 196.7 Y. Fofana ↓65’ 566.6 A. Saelemaekers
107.3 Rafael Leão 186.7 C. Nkunku ↓82’
  • 16M. Maignan (G)7.9
  • 31S. Pavlović7.0
  • 46M. Gabbia7.2
  • 23O. Tomori ★A8.0
  • 33D. Bartesaghi7.3
  • 12A. Rabiot7.0
  • 14L. Modrić6.9
  • 19Y. Fofana↓65’6.7
  • 56A. Saelemaekers6.6
  • 10Rafael Leão7.3
  • 18C. Nkunku↓82’6.7

Substitutes used

  • 8R. Loftus-Cheek↑65’6.9
  • 4S. Ricci↑82’6.5

Unused: M. Pittarella, P. Terracciano, D. Odogu, P. Estupiñán, K. De Winter, A. Jashari

Lazio 4-3-3

947.2 I. Provedel(G)
36.7 L. Pellegrini ↓85’ 136.9 A. Romagnoli 347.3 Mario Gila 776.7 A. Marušić
266.9 T. Bašić ↓85’ 56.9 M. Vecino ↓62’ 86.7 M. Guendouzi
106.2 M. Zaccagni 196.2 B. Dia ↓62’ 186.3 G. Isaksen ↓70’
  • 94I. Provedel (G)7.2
  • 3L. Pellegrini↓85’6.7
  • 13A. Romagnoli6.9
  • 34Mario Gila7.3
  • 77A. Marušić6.7
  • 26T. Bašić↓85’6.9
  • 5M. Vecino↓62’6.9
  • 8M. Guendouzi6.7
  • 10M. Zaccagni6.2
  • 19B. Dia↓62’6.2
  • 18G. Isaksen↓70’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 7O. Dele-Bashiru↑62’6.2
  • 11V. Castellanos↑62’6.3
  • 9Pedro↑70’7.2
  • 17Nuno Tavares↑85’6.7
  • 14T. Noslin↑85’6.5

Unused: A. Furlanetto, C. Mandas, M. Lazzari, Oliver Provstgaard, Patric, R. Belahyane

Player stats

Top rated
O. TomoriAC Milan8.0
2nd
M. MaignanAC Milan7.9
3rd
D. BartesaghiAC Milan7.3

AC Milan

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Maignan G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 88% 34 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.9
S. Pavlović D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 94% 54 2 0 0/0 0/0 7.0
M. Gabbia D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 89% 80 1 1 0/0 1/0 7.2
O. Tomori D 90 0 1 1 (0) 1 85% 46 6 1 0/0 2/1 8.0
D. Bartesaghi D 90 0 0 0 (0) 4 95% 42 1 2 1/3 0/1 7.3
A. Rabiot M 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 90% 52 2 1 0/0 2/3 7.0
L. Modrić M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 88% 78 1 2 0/1 2/1 6.9
Y. Fofana M 65 0 0 1 (0) 1 77% 26 3 0 0/1 0/0 6.7
A. Saelemaekers F 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 40 1 3 0/2 1/3 6.6
Rafael Leão F 90 1 0 3 (3) 1 72% 18 0 0 0/0 1/1 7.3
C. Nkunku F 82 0 0 0 (0) 3 100% 17 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
R. Loftus-Cheek M 25 0 0 1 (0) 0 100% 6 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
S. Ricci M 8 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.5

Lazio

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
I. Provedel G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 82% 22 0 0 1/1 0/0 7.2
L. Pellegrini D 85 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 55 1 0 0/2 0/0 6.7
A. Romagnoli D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 97% 68 1 4 0/0 1/0 6.9
Mario Gila D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 90% 81 2 0 0/0 1/0 7.3
A. Marušić D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 58 2 2 0/0 2/0 6.7
T. Bašić M 85 0 0 1 (1) 2 87% 54 1 1 0/0 3/2 6.9
M. Vecino M 62 0 0 0 (0) 0 93% 58 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.9
M. Guendouzi M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 53 0 2 1/2 1/1 6.7
M. Zaccagni M 90 0 0 2 (1) 0 75% 36 1 1 1/6 3/3 6.2
B. Dia F 62 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 15 1 0 0/1 0/0 6.2
G. Isaksen F 70 0 0 2 (0) 1 72% 18 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.3
O. Dele-Bashiru M 28 0 0 1 (0) 1 91% 11 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.2
V. Castellanos F 28 0 0 1 (1) 0 86% 7 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.3
Pedro F 20 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 18 1 0 0/1 0/3 7.2
Nuno Tavares D 5 0 0 0 (0) 1 82% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
T. Noslin F 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.5

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.