AC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 60). AC Milan had 6 days of rest, Lazio 6.1 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
AC Milan50%
Draw27%
Lazio24%
AC Milan50%
Draw26%
Lazio24%
AC Milan49%
Draw27%
Lazio24%
AC Milan42%
Draw28%
Lazio30%
AC Milan51%
Draw25%
Lazio24%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 16
Team strength
AC Milan
Lazio
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
72
AttackIn forecast
53
69
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AC MilanLazio
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
92%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
58%
12.67
ShotsContext
10.67
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.42
Shots in the boxContext
6.58
67%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.91
OffsidesContext
1.20
11.42
Shots allowedContext
12.75
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.73
BlocksContext
2.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
87%
Save rateContext
85%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
464
PassesContext
465
406
Accurate passesContext
397
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.75
FoulsContext
10.50
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
17.42
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
90%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.60
ShotsContext
10.30
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
37%
On target shareContext
40%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
67%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.80
BlocksContext
2.60
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
91%
Save rateContext
86%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
449
PassesContext
460
391
Accurate passesContext
389
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.00
FoulsContext
10.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
17.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel479 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
18C. Nkunku
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
26T. Bašić
5M. Vecino
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
18G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lazio-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lazio · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | AC Milan | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lecce | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 18 · 2.00 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 AC Milan wins1 draws2 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.13
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 2 Mar 2025AC Milan1–2Lazio
- 31 Aug 2024Lazio2–2AC Milan
- 1 Mar 2024Lazio0–1AC Milan
- 30 Sep 2023AC Milan2–0Lazio
- 6 May 2023AC Milan2–0Lazio
- 24 Jan 2023Lazio4–0AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 8% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 58% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 50% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| AC Milan | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.00 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.58 | 1.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 4.33 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| AC Milan | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 7.89 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.70 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.90
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+25%league 39%
Fouls24.8league 25.9
Penalties0.25league 0.31
Home wins44%league 37%
AC Milan2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Aug 25H · Cremonese1–21
- W5 May 25A · Genoa2–15
Lazio1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Oct 25A · Atalanta0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AC Milan12 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Lazio12 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
