AC Milan vs Venezia – 28 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Fri, Aug 28 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–0Full time

Venezia 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were clear favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Venezia. AC Milan had 5 days of rest, Venezia 5.1 and had to travel 245 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel245 kmRest days5 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

AC Milan76%

Draw15%

Venezia9%

Expected goals 2.62 – 0.82

AC Milan76%

Draw15%

Venezia9%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.72

AC Milan77%

Draw14%

Venezia9%

Expected goals 2.67 – 0.80

AC Milan69%

Draw18%

Venezia13%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.92

AC Milan75%

Draw15%

Venezia10%

Expected goals 2.59 – 0.82

Over 2.5 67% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

23°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 85%

Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 57

Team strength

AC Milan

Venezia

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

72 AttackIn forecast 21

69 DefenceIn forecast 14

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Venezia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Venezia

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

60% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.90

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

28% On target shareContext 36%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

58% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.88

12.80 Shots allowedContext 14.90

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.20 BlocksContext 4.10

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

73% Save rateContext 62%

52% PossessionIn forecast 49%

467 PassesContext 377

405 Accurate passesContext 297

87% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.70 FoulsContext 14.20

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan W

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km251 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 3 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W23 AugA · Torino2–11.5 xPts

Venezia L

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel245 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L23 AugH · Lecce0–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Venezia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Aug	5.1Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	245 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	251 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	9	8.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila

33D. Bartesaghi 14L. Modrić 80Y. Musah 21S. Chukwueze

70A. Cissè 8R. Loftus-Cheek

9Gonçalo Ramos

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Venezia Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1F. Stanković(G)

4B. Franjić 17A. Bella-Kotchap 3J. Schingtienne

5R. Haps 26T. Bašić 6G. Busio 71Kike Pérez 18A. Hainaut

45A. Adams 10J. Yeboah

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Venezia Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AC Milan-1.3 pp
Draw+0.6 pp
Venezia+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home No home games yet this season.

Venezia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

4 AC Milan wins0 draws0 Venezia wins

Goals per game2.75 – 0.00 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

27 Apr 2025Venezia0–2AC Milan
14 Sep 2024AC Milan4–0Venezia
9 Jan 2022Venezia0–3AC Milan
22 Sep 2021AC Milan2–0Venezia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Venezia	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	3.44
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	67%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	AC Milan	Venezia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.00
Conceded per game	1.50	2.00
Match goals	2.60	2.00	3.44
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	0%	67%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	40%	100%
Games	10	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Venezia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.00
Corners conceded	2.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	8.00	8.80
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	0.00	3.00
Match total	1.00	4.00	3.30
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	AC Milan	Venezia	League
Corners
Corners won	2.80	4.00
Corners conceded	3.70	4.60
Match total	6.50	8.60	8.80
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.90	3.90	3.30
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 57 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.46league 3.30

Red cards0.14league 0.00

Cards 5+32%league 10%

Fouls23.7league 24.1

Penalties0.21league 0.00

Home wins39%league 30%

AC Milan7 with this referee

Record5-0-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W3 Feb 26A · Bologna3–00
W27 Apr 25A · Venezia2–00
L2 Mar 25H · Lazio1–23
W14 Jan 25A · Como2–16
W27 Aug 22H · Bologna2–02

Venezia3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

L27 Apr 25H · AC Milan0–21
D27 Jan 25H · Verona1–11
L14 Mar 22A · Lazio0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.