Academico Viseu
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Academico Viseu were slight favourites.
Academico Viseu were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 22). Academico Viseu had 20.2 days of rest, Estoril 20.1 and had to travel 252 km.
Away travel252 kmRest days20.2 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Academico Viseu51%
Draw24%
Estoril25%
Academico Viseu51%
Draw24%
Estoril25%
Academico Viseu51%
Draw24%
Estoril25%
Academico Viseu44%
Draw25%
Estoril31%
Academico Viseu52%
Draw24%
Estoril25%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Viseu)
No weather data yet
RefereeCláudio Pereira
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 47
Team strength
Academico Viseu
Estoril
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
28
AttackIn forecast
21
31
DefenceIn forecast
29
67
Form indexContext
8
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Academico ViseuEstoril
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.43
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
71%
Scored inContext
43%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.29
ShotsContext
12.57
3.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
34%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
61%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
3%
1.60
OffsidesContext
—
17.57
Shots allowedContext
13.57
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.57
BlocksContext
4.33
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
73%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
385
PassesContext
400
314
Accurate passesContext
320
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.86
FoulsContext
11.14
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
11.86
2.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
71%
Scored inContext
60%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.29
ShotsContext
12.10
3.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
34%
On target shareContext
36%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
61%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
5%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.57
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.57
BlocksContext
4.11
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
73%
Save rateContext
61%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
385
PassesContext
415
314
Accurate passesContext
339
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.86
FoulsContext
11.10
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Academico Viseu
DLWWW
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 67 · 10 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
Estoril
LLDLL
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel252 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 8 · 1 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Academico Viseu |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 252 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Academico Viseu
Confirmed XI
98Ewerton(G)
3Miguel Brau
2N. Michelis
41A. Correia
75Robinho
7Luís Silva
8C. Kahraman
47L. Gohi
14S. Messeguem
31João Guilherme
33André Clóvis
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
5A. Tsoungui
6Xavi Sintes
35S. Amissah
21R. Jurišić
10J. Holsgrove
44M. Robin
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
99R. Guitane
7André Lacximicant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Academico Viseu
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Academico Viseu+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Academico Viseu · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Estoril · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Academico Viseu | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Academico Viseu | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 1.86 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 29% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Academico Viseu | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 30% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 40% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Academico Viseu | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.71 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.00 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.86 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.14 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 3.71 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Academico Viseu | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.71 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.78 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.86 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.20 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cláudio Pereira 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 4.14
Red cards0.11league 0.20
Cards 5+45%league 45%
Fouls24.3league 24.8
Penalties0.13league 0.34
Home wins40%league 37%
Academico ViseuNo previous matches with this referee.
Estoril4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L5 Jan 24A · Sporting CP1–53
- L3 Sep 23H · Boavista1–23
- L4 Mar 23H · Vizela0–33
- L14 Aug 22A · Guimaraes0–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Academico Viseu7 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Estoril7 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Academico Viseu7 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
