Eredivisie Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 6 · 15:45 Bingoal Stadion, ‘s-Gravenhage
ADO Den Haag 15th · 1 pts · 4 played
2–3Full time
Fortuna Sittard 8th · 7 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. ADO Den Haag had 7.1 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 8.9 and had to travel.

Rest days7.1 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
ADO Den Haag40%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard35%
Expected goals 1.49 – 1.38
ADO Den Haag38%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard36%
Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31
ADO Den Haag39%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard36%
Expected goals 1.45 – 1.37
ADO Den Haag33%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard42%
Expected goals 1.33 – 1.55
ADO Den Haag40%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard36%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.47
Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (‘s-Gravenhage)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
  • Cards per match 3.2
  • Penalties per match 0.24
  • Matches 33

Team strength

ADO Den HaagFortuna Sittard
14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20
15 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
15 AttackIn forecast 19
18 DefenceIn forecast 19
14 Form indexContext 59
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

ADO Den Haag

Attack—
Defense risk—

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ADO Den HaagFortuna Sittard
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75
0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.06
2.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.66
+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.94
75% Scored inContext 75%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.00 ShotsContext 9.50
2.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
25% On target shareContext 53%
5.75 Shots in the boxContext 5.75
53% Box shareContext 58%
9% ConversionContext 21%
1.67 OffsidesContext 2.67
18.00 Shots allowedContext 22.00
8.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
4.50 BlocksContext 6.25
5.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00
68% Save rateContext 77%
47% PossessionIn forecast 30%
416 PassesContext 266
337 Accurate passesContext 188
81% Pass accuracyContext 71%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.90
11.75 FoulsContext 8.25
8.75 Fouls sufferedContext 8.75
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
0.80 xGVia Att/Def 0.90
2.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.27
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.50
50% Scored inContext 70%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.00 ShotsContext 10.20
2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
22% On target shareContext 40%
6.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.60
55% Box shareContext 56%
6% ConversionContext 14%
1.40 OffsidesContext 2.29
14.67 Shots allowedContext 17.60
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
4.17 BlocksContext 4.70
4.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
64% Save rateContext 69%
52% PossessionIn forecast 38%
425 PassesContext 317
343 Accurate passesContext 236
81% Pass accuracyContext 74%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.88
13.33 FoulsContext 9.40
10.17 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 6 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

ADO Den Haag
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
  • D30 AugA · Feyenoord2–20.3 xPts
  • L23 AugA · GO Ahead Eagles1–30.7 xPts
  • L16 AugH · Groningen1–41.3 xPts
  • L8 AugA · AZ Alkmaar0–20.7 xPts
Fortuna Sittard
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—503 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 7 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
  • W28 AugA · Groningen3–20.7 xPts
  • L22 AugH · AZ Alkmaar0–21.0 xPts
  • W15 AugH · Cambuur3–11.7 xPts
  • D8 AugA · PSV Eindhoven2–20.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
ADO Den Haag Fortuna Sittard
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug8.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 28 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km503 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one66.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

ADO Den Haag Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1K. Nikiéma(G)
18S. Sylla 15M. Hokke 3P. Mulder 2O. Raterink
14M. Jiménez 25J. Kilo
27N. Thomas 11E. Rottier 7D. van Mieghem
46Y. Eduardo
+3 more reported missing outside this XI
Fortuna Sittard Confirmed XI
5-3-2
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus 28J. Hubner 3R. Guth 23P. Brittijn 12Ivo Pinto
22S. ’t Zand 20É. Michut 52M. Ihattaren
25L. Zeefuik 9A. Descotte
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
ADO Den Haag Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • ADO Den Haag+0.9 pp
  • Draw-0.3 pp
  • Fortuna Sittard-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

ADO Den Haag · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
4.00
Fortuna Sittard · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-1-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentADO Den HaagFortuna Sittard
Groningen L 1–4 H W 3–2 A
AZ Alkmaar L 0–2 A L 0–2 H
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

ADO Den HaagFortuna SittardForecast
Scored per game 1.002.00
Conceded per game 2.751.75
Match goals 3.753.75 2.88
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 75%75% 55%
Over 3.5 75%75%
Both teams scored 75%75% 58%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 25%25%
Games44
ADO Den HaagFortuna SittardForecast
Scored per game 1.001.40
Conceded per game 2.751.80
Match goals 3.753.20 2.88
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 75%60% 55%
Over 3.5 75%40%
Both teams scored 75%70% 58%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 25%30%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ADO Den HaagFortuna SittardLeague
Corners
Corners won4.503.00
Corners conceded6.509.67
Match total11.0012.6710.42
Over 8.550% 2/4100% 3/3
Over 9.550% 2/467% 2/3
Over 10.550% 2/467% 2/3
Cards
Cards1.501.50
Opponent cards0.501.75
Match total2.003.252.58
Over 3.50% 0/425% 1/4
Over 4.50% 0/425% 1/4
ADO Den HaagFortuna SittardLeague
Corners
Corners won4.333.75
Corners conceded5.507.75
Match total9.8311.5010.42
Over 8.533% 2/688% 7/8
Over 9.533% 2/663% 5/8
Over 10.533% 2/663% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.501.70
Opponent cards1.171.40
Match total2.673.102.58
Over 3.517% 1/620% 2/10
Over 4.517% 1/620% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 2.58
Red cards0.18league 0.08
Cards 5+30%league 15%
Fouls21.6league 20.7
Penalties0.24league 0.23
Home wins45%league 25%
ADO Den Haag

No previous matches with this referee.

Fortuna Sittard5 with this referee
Record2-0-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • L17 May 26A · Utrecht0–21
  • L21 Mar 26H · Twente1–22
  • W25 Jan 26A · Groningen2–12
  • W4 Oct 25H · FC Volendam1–01
  • L29 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam0–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

ADO Den Haag4 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
5 61-75
1 2 76-90
Fortuna Sittard4 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
ADO Den Haag6 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 31-45
2 46-60
6 61-75
1 2 76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 4 61-75
2 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Sparta Rotterdam PEC Zwolle 22 NEC Nijmegen Feyenoord 13 Ajax PSV Eindhoven 13 Willem II Excelsior 03 Groningen Twente 22 Heerenveen AZ Alkmaar 23 Telstar Cambuur 22 ADO Den Haag Fortuna Sittard 23 Utrecht GO Ahead Eagles 33