ADO Den Haag
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
ADO Den Haag39.5%fair odds 2.53
Draw26.1%fair odds 3.84
Fortuna Sittard34.4%fair odds 2.90
Expected goals1.49 – 1.38total 2.88
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| ADO Den Haag ↓ · Fortuna Sittard → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are ADO Den Haag goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.17
- 2–18.7%11.50
- 1–28.0%12.44
- 1–07.8%12.83
- 0–17.2%13.96
- 2–06.3%15.90
- 0–06.2%16.02
- 2–26.0%16.64
- 0–25.4%18.59
- 3–14.3%23.08
Winning margin
7.5%
ADO Den Haag by 3+
fair 13.31
11.9%
ADO Den Haag by 2
fair 8.40
20.1%
ADO Den Haag by 1
fair 4.99
26.1%
Draw
fair 3.84
18.5%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 5.40
10.2%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 9.82
5.8%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 17.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
ADO Den Haag goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
7%4+
Fortuna Sittard goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 39.5% | 39.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 34.4% | 35.4% | -1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 58.5% | -3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.7% | 61.5% | -2.8 pp |
| Expected goals ADO Den Haag | 1.49 | 1.56 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 1.38 | 1.47 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- ADO Den Haag win39.5%2.53
- Draw26.1%3.84
- Fortuna Sittard win34.4%2.90
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or draw65.6%1.53
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or Fortuna Sittard73.9%1.35
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw60.5%1.65
- Draw no bet ADO Den Haag53.4%1.87
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard46.6%2.15
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.8%1.27
- Over 2.554.9%1.82
- Over 3.532.5%3.07
- Over 4.516.5%6.08
- Under 1.521.2%4.72
- Under 2.545.1%2.22
- Under 3.567.5%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes58.7%1.70
- No41.3%2.42
- Yes and over 2.546.5%2.15
- ADO Den Haag win and yes20.6%4.85
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes18.3%5.47
Team goals
- ADO Den Haag over 0.577.6%1.29
- ADO Den Haag over 1.544.0%2.27
- ADO Den Haag over 2.519.0%5.27
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.574.9%1.33
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.540.2%2.49
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.516.2%6.16
- ADO Den Haag clean sheet25.1%3.99
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet22.4%4.46
- ADO Den Haag win to nil18.8%5.31
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil16.2%6.18
Handicap
- ADO Den Haag −1.519.4%5.15
- ADO Den Haag −2.57.5%13.31
- Fortuna Sittard +1.580.6%1.24
- Fortuna Sittard +2.592.5%1.08
- Fortuna Sittard −1.515.9%6.27
- ADO Den Haag +1.584.1%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored40
Favourite won60.0%
Avg chance given to result41.9%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right85.0%
BTTS called right75.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 46.2% | 54.5% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 55.8% | 73.3% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.4% | 57.1% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.9% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 16 of 40 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5959 | 0.6102 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.3% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 62.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 16 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 40 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.